It's far from over
, עודכן
LAS VEGAS - Four states have already chosen their delegates to represent them at the Republican National Convention in Tampa come Aug. 27, but the race is still far from over. Just over 5 percent, out of a total of 2,286 delegates, have been chosen. There are another 95 percent still in play. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, the big winner in Florida, knows that he has the best chance to face President Barack Obama in November. Newt Gingrich, the former Speaker of the House, is not giving up yet, and he has good reason not to.
Over the next several weeks, the contenders can expect smaller battles than the ones already held - Nevada on Saturday, Maine, Minnesota, Colorado, Missouri, Arizona, Michigan later in the month, and Washington State on March 3. All these contests lead up to Super Tuesday on March 6, which will add 437 delegates to the convention. Gingrich is betting on Super Tuesday. Among the states in play on Super Tuesday are Georgia, Gingrich's home state, which sends 76 delegates. Florida, the fourth largest state in the U.S. in terms of population size, by comparison, sends "only" 50 delegates. Alabama and Mississippi hold primaries on March 13. And in April, Texas, with its 155 delegates, holds its primary. Gingrich has a good chance in all of these states.
Gingrich often brings up Ronald Reagan, on whose team he served. He knows that American ears of today like the sound of the word "Reagan." America misses its mythological leader in the modern era, who knew how to revive the economy. Gingrich, the anti-establishment candidate, loves quoting Reagan. He also loves reminding people that in 1980 Romney wasn't even a Republican. Apart from Reagan circa 1980, Gingrich also likes to remember Reagan circa 1976, when, even though losing to Ford in the primaries by a tiny margin, started to turn things around in March 1976 in the western states, and in California, where he was governor. Ford, who knew how to take advantage of his status as incumbent, barely won, with a margin of 1,187 to Reagan's 1,070. Gingrich is hoping for a similar story, but with a victory this time.
In the meantime, both Romney and Gingrich need to change their approaches. While the negative advertising helped Gingrich in South Carolina and Romney in Florida, the voters want to hear about solutions and not just bad things about "the other guy." It is in this realm, according to some analysts, that Gingrich has more to offer. After his victory in Florida, Romney only had bad things to say about Obama. In a five-minute speech, Gingrich laid out his entire platform. The U.S. networks highlighted Gingrich's ideas, and in particular his commitment to moving the U.S. embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.
The GOP train has pulled into Nevada. There's no better place than Vegas to bet on a win. The safe bet is once again on Mitt Romney. Romney won here in 2008 with 51% of the vote. Rick Santorum and Ron Paul are soldiering on. Santorum has his eye on the next elections four years from now. Paul is considering running as an Independent, which would be a real nightmare for the Republican Party. Florida was good to Romney, even if he comes to Nevada battered. Increasingly, he is able to win the trust of the party's conservatives, even as 39% of them say they would still prefer another candidate. Meanwhile, America is impressed with Ann Romney. She can also beat Michelle Obama.
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