The past weekend offered another opportunity to take an objective look at the players involved in the conflict surrounding Iran's nuclear weapons program: Israel, which is threatening to attack; the U.S., which opposes such a move; Iran, which is busy with threats and deception; and international organizations, which are trying to promote dialogue. Defense Minister Ehud Barak presented the Israeli position that time is running out and only a narrow window remains open to stop Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. The Iranians, warned Barak, are fast approaching what he called an "immunity zone," where no targeted operation could thwart them. Iran is transferring its uranium enrichment capabilities, and enriched materials, to the new Fordo complex (near the city of Qom) deep underground in order to better protect them from aerial attacks. Barak believes that sanctions must be significantly increased to determine whether Iran is willing to backtrack or, if it does not, to attack quickly. Otherwise, the entire question of whether to attack or not will become entirely theoretical. Meanwhile, U.S. Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta admitted in an interview to the Wall Street Journal that even the most powerful bunker-busting bombs (14 tons) are incapable of completely destroying the Fordo complex. Panetta's message is clear: Even if we bring out the big guns, we will not be able to completely halt Iran's nuclear program. The best solution at the moment is to toughen sanctions and accelerate the development of more advanced weaponry. Iran, for the time being, is moving ahead as planned. Even as the West accumulates more incriminating evidence about its nuclear activities, Iran's leadership maintains the nuclear program is strictly civilian. And to demonstrate just how much it isn't bowing to pressure, it is preempting the EU's oil embargo with a law of its own that would forbid the sale of its oil to Europe. Iran hopes to cause a hike in oil prices, which would lead to the softening of sanctions or at least stop future sanctions from including its central bank. The fourth player, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), along with others at the U.N., is pushing for talks. IAEA inspectors, who returned to Iran Sunday for the first time since October, have received hints that Iran may agree to return to negotiations that ended two years ago. Iran is liable to sit down and talk with an eye to postponing sanctions and buying more time. The West will use negotiations to delay the nuclear project while determining how to best neutralize it by other means. While the various players are looking to buy more time, Israel continues to shout that time has already run out. Right now, the two possible scenarios are intensifying sanctions in July or returning to talks in the near future. The Netanyahu government will have to decide whether to attack Iran despite clear American and European opposition, or to keep waiting. The decision hasn't been made yet. Until it is, we can expect more chatter, declarations and threats from all sides, in the hope that amplified pressure forces Iran to blink first.
