The Knesset can...

I have been going round and round on the data coming out of the government discussion on the number of ultra-Orthodox men who do not serve in the IDF or volunteer their time in an alternative national service program. Following much disagreement on the actual numbers, the following picture emerged: Some 60,000 ultra-Orthodox men (some in the government say the number is bigger) between the ages of 18-28 refuse to crawl on dirt in basic training and will not handle a gun, a grenade, or a water canteen. However, when special (expensive) military programs were developed especially for them, the number of ultra-Orthodox soldiers grew.

Four years ago, some 800 ultra-Orthodox men enlisted. This year, the number rose to 2,400. That is in fact a significant increase, but it is meaningless in comparison to the tens of thousands who still dodge the draft. Based on this data, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu argued that the Tal Law (drafted to encourage ultra-Orthodox men to volunteer to join the military) was effective. But the scope of ultra-Orthodox enlistment is still negligible: around 5 percent.

More details emerged, however, on the change in the ultra-Orthodox state of mind: In the past, members of the ultra-Orthodox community who did enlist were ashamed, they would take off their uniforms and put the shtreimel back on before coming home. But now, things have changed. Ultra-Orthodox soldiers proudly wear their uniforms around town, and their peers see them and are encouraged to consider enlisting themselves.

But the number of ultra-Orthodox soldiers is still so low that the Israeli public is beginning to resent having to pick up their slack, both in terms of security and financially (ultra-Orthodox men, many of whom do not work, enjoy tax exemptions and government stipends). Hence the public outcry against the Tal Law – which essentially exempts ultra-Orthodox men from service (the issue of Israeli-Arab enlistment is just as complex, but that is a different story). On the opposite side, the ultra-Orthodox community fears a sudden mass draft of its young yeshiva students.

Touting these figures, Netanyahu avoided putting the extension of the Tal Law up for a coalition vote. The aim was to extend the law by another five years, just as the administration of former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert did five years ago. Netanyahu's decision to pass the extension on to the Knesset for a vote deserves some criticism: The coalition's job is to govern, not to pass responsibility over to the Knesset. But he is behaving in this way because he cannot bridge the gaps between ultra-Orthodox Shas party, which wants another five years of legal draft-dodging for its constituents; Yisrael Beitenu, which opposes extending the law; and Defense Minister Ehud Barak who suggested extending the law for only one year and formulating an adequate alternative in that time. Meanwhile, Netanyahu withdrew his support for the five-year extension. He wants the Knesset to discuss the issue and somehow reach a compromise. There is still time before the August deadline.

There is also something to be said in favor of Netanyahu's avoidance of conflict. If the coalition imposes discipline on its members and dictates the vote, the Tal Law will be extended by the intended five years. However, if the Knesset is given the freedom to vote as it chooses, there is a chance that the Tal Law will shrink significantly and reduce ultra-Orthodox draft-dodging. Then the number of ultra-Orthodox soldiers will soar from 2,400 to many, many more. Still far from ideal, but better than the current situation. However, if the gaps between Shas and Yisrael Beitenu are not bridged, then Netanyahu, in passing the burden over to the Knesset, is essentially expediting the dissolution of the Knesset, which will culminate in early elections. Is that what he wants? That secret remains with him.

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