Entangled in a web

The municipal elections, set to take place in Turkey today (Sunday), seem more like a national referendum on the Turkish people's support for Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan than a vote for their mayors. It's not a surprise that Erdogan is on edge. Since 2002 his Justice and Development party (AKP) has not lost any election race.

However, after all of Erdogan's scandals and political divisiveness, his Islamist party appears on the cusp of a possible defeat. For the past month Erdogan has been crisscrossing Turkey. He understands just how much of an affect these election results will have on his future. In August Turkey will hold presidential elections, and Erdogan knows that the path to the presidency runs through the townships.

All of Erdogan's recent conduct testifies to the immense pressure (to the point of madness) he is under. Until recently he saw himself as a leader for life, a type of Islamist Ataturk. Erdogan, who enjoys boasting about his Islamic democracy, made all the moves to justify his reputation: With an overly heavy hand he suppressed the riots in Gezi Park, prohibited the sale of alcohol, blocked Twitter and banned YouTube. The only thing remaining for him to outlaw is secularism.

Amid all of the prohibitions he forgot that about 100 years ago Turkey chose secularism. But Erdogan ignored the 50 percent who did not vote for him in the last elections, choosing instead to battle modernism and the world-wide web. He went about doing this with such extremist fervor that he too, perhaps, became entangled in his own web.

Indeed, it is too early to eulogize him, even if his current situation is not an easy one. The Turkish prime minister still holds three cards that give him hope his party can win 45% of the vote, which he will consider a victory. Firstly, between 2002 until 2012 Turkey saw the greatest economic growth of all Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries. Secondly, he still enjoys the support of a large and loyal camp, comprised mostly of poorer Turks and those who support incorporating religion into Turkish politics. The third reason is the most important: The opposition in Turkey is weak and lacks a plan. The opposition parties, the Republican People's Party (CHP) and Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) don't really pose an alternative course, and pro-Kurdish Peace and Democracy Party (BDP) presents itself as a local option, not a national one.

Erdogan vowed to resign if he loses. He needs at least 40% of the vote today. Such a loss, from his perspective, would be a total victory.

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