Divided they stand
Something bad has happened to Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas. The exemplar, moderate Palestinian traveled to the ends of the Middle East just to meet with child murderer Amna Muna. What if Ami Popper (an Israeli who lined up Arabs and gunned down seven at a bus stop in 1990) was to be released from prison and exiled to a foreign land and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu traveled around the world to shake his hand? It would be inconceivable, and if it did happen it would be vehemently condemned. But for the Palestinians, it is fair game.
The timing is not coincidental. Abbas would not have given Muna the time of day back when he was a welcome guest at the Prime Minister's Residence in Jerusalem. But now he is working on the final draft of a document that will extend the PLO's wingspan so that Hamas can be taken under its wing. Uniting with an organization that refuses to adopt even the Oslo Accords, a smile in the direction of a Jew-killer is a calculated political move.
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There are two possible ways this can go. In the first scenario, the pessimists will be proven wrong, the influence of West Bank Palestinians over their Gazan brothers will increase and Hamas will be pushed aside by compromise and peace. Even if this scenario materializes, it will take many years. Hamas' presence within the PLO framework would be a good excuse to prevent a diplomatic agreement. It could serve as an excuse even for the handful of Israelis who do not want to see a deal reached. Under these conditions, there will not be any real negotiations for at least ten years.
The other, more likely, scenario is that Hamas' cunning will overpower Abbas and thwart most of his moves, be they serious moves or just for the sake of appearances, toward negotiations with Israel. Hamas will prevent elections from being held in the West Bank and Gaza with all kinds of excuses. Hamas says it refuses to run together with Abbas in the election unless residents of east Jerusalem, within sovereign Israel, are allowed to vote as well.
Only Abbas knows whether opening the PLO's doors to Hamas is motivated by arrogance he believes he is powerful enough to twist Khaled Mashaal's arm or recognition that Hamas will eventually take over leadership of the Palestinian people anyway and all he can do is postpone the inevitable. Even if this is only a trick to signal to Israel that the window of opportunity is closing this strategic move will drag both nations into yet another round, if not multiple rounds, of the same bloody war.
Israel is trying to dissuade Abbas from making this mistake and bringing Hamas into the fold, but he does not trust Israel's motives. But it is still our duty to explain to him the real implications of such a move. How do you write in Arabic "think before you act-"
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