America is coming around on Iran
What was is that Defense Minister Ehud Barak said to U.S. President Barack Obama during their meeting this week that prompted U.S. Chief of Staff Gen. Martin Dempsey and Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta to warn of an imminent Iranian nuclear bomb and declare that the U.S. will not let it happen? Panetta, for his part, has done a complete about-face. His remarks at the Saban Conference less than two weeks ago were anemic, lacked teeth, and mostly made demands on Israel. The chief of staff, too, no longer seems like a paper tiger.
Israeli intelligence and the threat of an IDF attack on Iran played a central role in crystallizing the U.S. policy. But Israel is not alone it stands to reason that several regional players have made it clear to the U.S. that if it does not take serious steps to stop the nuclear aspirations of their ayatollah neighbors they would have to reevaluate their strategy, and that could be dangerous for the West.
And still, the change of heart of these two defense officials does not necessarily herald an American Spring. Congress was set to finally impose real sanctions on Iran's central bank but the White House thwarted the move, which could have actually borne results. Is the U.S. saying one thing and doing another? It is too early to tell, but we must keep our eyes open. In any case, the important message coming out of the U.S. is that their threats are gaining credibility.
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There are two possibilities: Either the U.S. and Israel (and Europe) are planning a military strike on Iran, or they are playing a hand of diplomatic poker meant to deter Tehran without firing a single bullet. Both options require credible intent and that is precisely the reason remarks by former Mossad chief Meir Dagan who said threats against Iran would backfire and that a strike should be the last option considered sparked shock and suspicion toward Israel among intelligence agencies in the West. Those comments also drew justified rage from Barak, Intelligence and Atomic Energy Minister Dan Meridor and minister without a portfolio Ze'ev Binyamin (Benny) Begin.
Not only did Dagan's estimate of a nuclear Iran by 2015 turn out to be an overly optimistic forecast in comparison with the likely reality, but he also severely damaged Israel's ability to create credible deterrence. Dagan's proponents, former IDF Chief of General Staff Lt.-Gen. Gabi Ashkenazi and former Israel Security Agency (Shin Bet) security service chief Yuval Diskin, have argued that they both were forced to resign from the their key posts over disputes with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Iran. Their argument, which was not that convincing to begin with, is turning out to be not only dangerous, but also baseless.
This year is a year of decisions. Not only for Netanyahu and Barak, but also for Obama. These decisions require the broadest possible coalition behind sanctions, and possibly even more dramatic steps. Under these circumstances, Israel's accelerated construction beyond the Green Line against the backdrop of increasing "price- tag" attacks by radical settlers against Palestinians, are extremely damaging to Israel, especially to Israel's relationship with the U.S. It is precisely now, when the West is beginning to take more serious action on Iran, that Israel must restrain itself. But the biggest significance of the last 48 hours is the gust of hope from across the Atlantic.
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