A new strategic challenge

In the shadow of the current events in Tahrir Square, senior Egyptian officials have sent messages of calm to Israel. The situation is under control, they explained, and there is no need to worry about Israel-Egypt relations.

We received similar messages exactly 10 months ago. Then, as now, it was the heads of the security apparatus in Cairo who were insisting to their Israeli colleagues that there was no cause for concern. This was a controlled case of the masses letting off some steam, and the regime had things under control, they said.

Their words lulled Israel into a false sense of security, and strategic assessments were adapted accordingly.

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When asked, in hindsight, how they failed to foresee the collapse of the Egyptian regime, the Israeli officials responded: We can't be expected to know what the Egyptians themselves did not anticipate. Mubarak himself did not realize that his end was imminent. Had he known, he would have made sure to prevent it.

Still, the lesson has been learned. Today, the Israeli defense establishment sounds much less self-assured, and much more concerned. Egypt has long ceased to be a "bunker," and we now see it as something between a risk and a threat. It is a risk when it comes to the government in Cairo and political developments in the country (specifically, the increasing strength of Islamic forces) and it is a threat when it comes to to terrorism (mainly emanating from the Sinai Peninsula).

These assessments have led to swift action. Regarding the Sinai, the conclusions applied in the field include the accelerated building of the fence between Eilat and the Gaza border, the creation of a new IDF brigade headquarters and increased efforts and means of collection - all resulting from the realization that, in fact, the border has become a line of conflict.

All of that is the easy part. The main problem is the possibility of a nightmare scenario in which Egypt ceases to be a peaceful country and turns into an enemy state. The process is not expected to occur overnight, but the implication is clear - the need may arise for strategic and budgetary action. This would result in massive financial investment in the tens of billions of shekels (allocated in order to strengthen IDF military capabilities: tanks, ships, and aircrafts), the re-establishment of headquarters and infrastructure and a changed world order - all for the purposes of countering the Egyptian military.

In preparation, the prime minister had promised to add 1 billion shekels to the defense budget (mainly for intelligence efforts). The social justice protests, however, reshuffled the cards and the budget additions turned into cutbacks. The events of the last few days will serve to further sharpen the debate over cuts to the defense budget, and will put in a slightly ridiculous light the claims made by the finance minister that the uprisings in Arab states would weaken those states, reducing the threat they pose to Israel.

Still, the economic part of this story is peanuts. These events in Egypt should cause immense concern. They threaten to deprive Israel of one of its most important strategic anchors, an anchor that we have, for decades, hinged our entire security upon. Of course, this hasn't happened yet - the temporary regime has proved its commitment to peace even in the face of the recent terror attack along its border with Israel and the attempted takeover of the Israeli Embassy in Cairo. It played a crucial role in the release of both Gilad Shalit and Ilan Grapel, but the security forces are crumbling in Cairo, and this is nothing if not ominous.

The military council holds not only Egypt but also the peace treaty, recognizing its main virtue - being part of the group of sane countries. Its fall, and the rise of extremist elements, could potentially set Egypt back by decades, and send us back to a time when we looked southward with great concern.

The writer is Channel One's military commentator.

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