Reaching the tipping point in Syria | היום

Reaching the tipping point in Syria

Up until Wednesday there was talk of cracks appearing in Assad's regime. Since then, we have started talking about fractures.

The leadership in Damascus suffered some heavy blows on Wednesday, from every possible direction, both international and domestic. Before Bashar Assad even woke up, defectors from the army carried out an organized attack – the first since the uprising began in March – on an air force intelligence base where political prisoners were being detained. At the same time, in Rabat, Morocco, the Arab League and Turkey called for tough sanctions against Assad. The Syrian leader has never been so isolated. Syria has never been as close to civil war as it is in this moment. And the collapse of the Syrian regime has never looked as likely as it does today.

According to reports, the exchange of fire lasted 90 minutes at the military base where Palestinian and Hezbollah operatives have been stationed to help suppress the riots. The lengthy battle points to how significant the attack was. It also reveals the defectors' capabilities.

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Their target was not chosen arbitrarily, and this does not bode well for Assad. The Free Syrian Army, which formed a temporary military council, claims that its forces are 15,000-members strong. Assad has an army of 250,000. These figures are about to change – and the direction in which they are headed is clear.

From the start of the uprising in Syria, the world – the same one that continues to refuse to intervene militarily – wondered: What will be the tipping point in Syria? Will the terrible slaughter obligate the international community to intervene for the sake of morality? Or will a mass of army defectors lead to a revolution-

It appears as though the latter scenario is taking shape right before our very eyes. Syria is on the brink of civil war. It could last a relatively long time and be extremely violent, but it seems that the countdown to the end of Assad's regime has begun. This is not good news for Iran, or for Hezbollah. It is also not necessarily good news for Israel. Many scenarios are possible for post-Assad Syria.

The Arab League is a conservative organization. It truly takes a lot for Arab countries, together with Turkey, to come out with such a dramatic proclamation against Assad. The Arab League might not have teeth, but it does have a voice – and that voice was heard around the world on Wednesday.

At the recent Rabat Arab League session, Turkey – which is not a member of the body – had a place of honor in the discussions. Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu conducted a press conference even before the meeting of foreign ministers took place. He called on Assad to end the violence and begin the inevitable process of regime change. Turkey, admittedly, was in fact the first to see the end of Assad's rule fast approaching.

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