The moment of truth approaches
Iran underestimated International Atomic Energy Agency head Yukiya Amano. Its representatives found a polite Japanese diplomat who speaks in low octaves, and proceeded to scorn and insult him, without understanding what he is made of. They slandered a man who was Japan's ambassador to the IAEA, thinking they could deceive him as they did his predecessor, Dr. Mohamed ElBaradei from Egypt. ElBaradei went easy on them and turned a blind eye, seeking to endear himself to those who seek an Islamic atom bomb, because he hoped the Arab Spring would elevate him to the presidency of his country.
The IAEA's report on Iran's nuclear trickery is uncompromising, and comes closer to describing the current situation than did ElBaradei. Its inspectors have collected damning material, perhaps indicating suspicious circumstances regarding Iran's intention to create nuclear weapons. Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi has already begun an effort to delegitimize the upcoming report as well as Amano, whose name appears on it, claiming that it is the result of an American (and Israeli) plot, but no one in the world believes him.
In the past, enlightened nations refused to believe ElBaradei when he walked a fine line in his reports on Iran and prettified reality.
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Now the truth has been published in an official IAEA document. However, this truth has been softened. All signs indicate that Russia and China have helped moderate its formulations. They are capable of making moves in the IAEA, both at the level of the inspectors and among the higher ranks.
The report will grant legitimacy to calls to tighten economic sanctions on Iran, but will Tehran accede to the request to halt its efforts to develop nuclear weapons? Probably not. Certainly not in the face of meager sanctions, which take effect slowly. Only now, ahead of the publication of the damning report on Tuesday, has a renewed storm erupted in the West. The U.S., Britain and France were quick to express themselves about the Iranian threat. What happens next is unclear.
In the Israeli experience, which lacks any restraint, the report's publication will accelerate the crazy discussion, which is called a "public debate" but is actually an argument between supporters and detractors of a military operation (as a last resort). New positions and practical assessments will be exposed daily. For example, on Saturday's Meet the Press with Dana Weiss, former Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee Chairman Tzachi Hanegbi, who is well-versed on the subject, claimed that the severity of an Iranian attack against the Israeli homefront would not be as harsh as predictions would have it. Everyone knows that this assessment is not a figment of Hanegbi's imagination.
Former Mossad head Efraim Halevy, more surprisingly, has positioned himself on the other end of the argument. Halevy, who for several years has expressed unusual opinions, including calls to conduct negotiations with Hamas, objects to a military move against Iran, as does his successor Meir Dagan. Halevy is convinced that nuclear weapons in the hands of the ayatollahs are less dangerous to Israel than the process of Haredization that Israeli society is undergoing. It is impossible to understand from what cloth these most recent Mossad heads are cut. Are they preoccupied with future political careers?
All of this is reflected in the ravenousness of Israeli society, which is incapable of refraining from this dangerous polemic. The endless chattering is reminiscent of the song that has practically become the anthem of the air force, "This tune can't be stopped." But precisely for the sake of the air force, which will end up bearing most of the burden, it should be stopped. Immediately.
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