Israel retaliated to the rocket barrage on Wednesday with a large military response in the Gaza Strip. There were no doubts about whether to respond: Since Operation Pillar of Defense, the Israel Defense Forces has been strict about responding to every shooting or rocket launch. The dilemma was over the ideal scope of the response, so as to exact a price and send a clear message to the other side, but without escalating the situation. Despite the anger at the large (and surprising) rocket barrage, it was difficult to find any enthusiasm in Israel on Wednesday over engaging in another Gaza adventure. The rules of the game are still intact -- the security situation in the Negev is considerably better than in the past -- and the internal and international legitimacy for such an action would be limited. Beyond this, there are objective constraints: the inclement weather that significantly hinders the Israeli Air Force's ability to operate freely, and the many planned Purim holiday festivities, which authorities are understandably hesitant to cancel. It appears that the powers in Gaza are also uninterested in breaking the rules of the game. The Islamic Jihad went wild yesterday, after three of its operatives were killed Tuesday by Israeli troops near the border fence, but despite its declarations that the cease-fire with Israel is over, it has no real desire to enter into another round of prolonged fighting, in which it is liable to lose significant assets. The organization that attacked yesterday did so with the knowledge that it would sustain damage in return, but also with the understanding that both it and Israel would not deviate from the unwritten "rules of the game," which the two sides have molded over the past year and a half. Regardless, however, the scope of rocket fire yesterday was the most significant since Pillar of Defense. We can suspect that there were motivations beyond the killing of three Islamic Jihad operatives, such as reports of conciliation talks between Iran and Hamas. Islamic Jihad is certainly concerned that Iranian support of Hamas would come at its expense, and taking action such as we witnessed yesterday was intended as a reminder that they are still here and relevant as ever. In any case, the two organizations are embroiled in a series of domestic clashes in Gaza, which has already led to firing rockets at Israel. It is possible that yesterday, too, was the result of internal frictions boiling over and increasing the already high motivation of Islamic Jihad terrorists to avenge their comrades' deaths. Additional relevant background noise is the Iranian arms ship intercepted by Israel on its way to Gaza, which surely added to the group's frustration. And still, as stated, in Gaza (as in Israel), no one wants an escalation, leading to the prognosis that this round will remain limited in scope and time. Contributing to this assessment is that both sides know that if the situation was to deteriorate, their means of communicating with one another are limited due to the break between Egypt and Hamas. In Gaza, there are even rumors that Egypt is encouraging Israel to act, and it stands to reason that Hamas, on Thursday, will try restraining the other terrorist groups in Gaza to prevent an unwanted deterioration of the situation. The dozens of targets hit yesterday were intended to completely demotivate the other side from fighting, and along the way erase assets from Hamas and Islamic Jihad that could be used to initiate a significant escalation in the future.
