Tunisia's Islamist party, Ennahda, didn't wait for the official election results to be announced before declaring victory. It rushed to publicize its preliminary estimates, according to which it had clinched at least 40 percent of the votes. Since President Zine El-Abidine Ben Ali was ousted in January and exiled Islamist leader Rashid Ghannushi returned a few days later, the writing has been on the wall. Today Ghannushi is Tunisia's new strongman. As an admirer of former Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser and a strong supporter of the Khomeini revolution in Iran, he did not need to wait for elections to crown himself the winner. The events of the Arab Spring were completely predictable. The citizens of Tunisia deposed a tyrant, yet democratic elections came too early for a nation that, since winning independence in 1956, had never known free elections. The choice was simple: Vote for religion. Play it safe. Tunisia is a country that has managed to build a strong middle class, and the status of Tunisian women is the best among the 22 countries of the Arab League. The club of the Mediterranean has always bustled with life, as thousands of tourists flocked to the liberal Arab country, which also became a paradise of sorts for the more observant visitors from the Persian Gulf. On a recent visit to the country, I saw with my own eyes how post-revolution Tunisia is home to more bearded men and more women with head coverings. The mosques are full and the sermons have grown more extreme. Everything that Ben Ali had banned is now fashionable. Tuesday's elections provided a seal of approval for the process of Islamization the country is experiencing. Those who claim the opposite only say so out of wishful thinking. Those who claim that Ennahda is moderate refuse to see the truth. Ennahda could be viewed as a moderate party compared to the ultra-conservative Salafis, who were not allowed to run, but attention must be paid to the party's double-speak. One one hand, they talk about the Turkish model, while on the other, they dream of the Iranian one, and even received financial support from Qatar and indirectly from Tehran. Meanwhile, the National Transitional Council in Libya announced that Sharia law will be the main source of the country's legislation. Suddenly Washington, Paris and London are expressing concern for human rights there. Those who just yesterday dropped bombs to free Libyans from the clutches of a dictator are now concerned about the fate of women in the wake of new religious laws. The big question is: Did anyone in Washington see this coming? Did President Barack Obama, who encouraged what is happening today in his speeches, not understand that this outcome was the only option at the uncontrollable pace of events? Does anyone doubt that the same thing will unfold in Egypt- One of Europe's leading experts on Islam, Baudouin Dupret, explained recently that the new constitution in Libya, based on Sharia law, actually reflects the tribal and conservative nature of the new Libya. There are many elements that we are unfamiliar with in the new Libya that don't really give us room for optimism, Dupret said. We in the West should stop thinking that we can shape these nations according to our criteria. It remains unclear whether Obama realizes this. Meanwhile, election results came in from Tunisians living abroad, mainly in Europe: 1.1 million voters (of whom 600,000 live in France) handed half the seats in the Constituent Assembly reserved for Tunisians living abroad to the Ennahda party. Long live European integration ... Recently, I had lunch with a senior Western diplomat stationed in an Arab country. What about the Arab Spring- I asked. Things will be bad, he replied. And after that? They will get worse, he said.
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