What's a piece of paper worth?

The Ukrainian crisis is no doubt the biggest test for U.S. President Barack Obama since he entered the White House. It is a test for Russian President Vladimir Putin as well.

This is more than just a crisis over Russia's interests and its concern for the Russian populace in Ukraine. The events unfolding bear direct consequences for a modern czar's dream of recreating the Russian Empire.

But the Ukrainian story brings another important question to the fray: What is a piece of paper worth? In 1921, a treaty was signed between France and Poland. When Nazi Germany invaded Poland in September 1939, the Allies had little choice and were the first to declare war on Germany. There was an accord and it had to be respected.

But since then there has been a serious downgrading of the gravitas that agreements, alliances, treaties and international documents in general carry.

The older generation of former South Vietnam can contribute a chapter to this development: On Jan. 27, 1973, the Paris Peace Accord was signed. Beyond establishing a cease-fire, the treaty was intended to bring peace to Vietnam.

The U.S. had to pull out of South Vietnam, and Communist North Vietnam was only to provide basic supplies to sustain the communists in South Vietnam. What actually happened, however, was that North Vietnam renewed its assault on the south in 1974 and rendered the Paris treaty null and void. As the situation worsened, the government in Saigon pleaded for U.S. aid. Then-U.S. President Gerald Ford ignored the request. On April 30, 1975, North Vietnamese tanks rolled into central Saigon as if the Paris treaty had never existed.

There is also, of course, the 1938 Munich Agreement. Czechoslovakia was more or less left to deal with the fact that its allies Britain and France had signed a deal with Germany (supported by Italy) and had given away part of the German-speaking Czech territory. We all remember what the deal was worth, and even worse, how the good guys surrendered just to maintain peace.

In 1994, Ukraine, Russia and Britain signed the Budapest Memorandum. It is curious to see whether the U.S. and Britain will act like allies, and stand by Ukraine as they did Poland, or whether they will act as the U.S. did in the 1970s when it abandoned Vietnam. What is certain is that today, treaties are not a clear indication of anything. Nations' interests change, as do their priorities and fighting strength. There is a general consensus in the West against military intervention on behalf of other nations. People in the West are touched to see protests in crowded squares chanting for freedom and democracy, but are much less enthused to use their money or military to support that same cause.

Putin knows the current value of a piece of paper and of popular sentiment, which is why he is willing to take a risk and take over the Crimean peninsula. While Western countries are talking about a high probability of war, Putin, as he did in Georgia in 2008, does not really believe they will rally to the cause. This is why he is allowing himself to muster forces without telling the press anything. In the Ukrainian crisis Russia has acted like a soldier, Europe like a diplomat.

Obama has yet to prove himself a president who will leave his mark. His handling of Syria and Iran and even his healthcare reforms have not promised him a legacy. But in Ukraine, based on the signed Budapest Memorandum, he can take charge and erase the shame of the Libya campaign in 2011 when the U.S. was dragged into a fight behind France and Britain.

Woe to U.S. supporters if the only response to Russia's violation of Ukraine's sovereignty is a boycott of the G-8 Summit in Sochi. The West and Obama have many deals with the Russians -- over Iran, Syria, North Korea -- which tempt them not to get involved. In an age when the West does not want to fight, it does not mind letting the Russians fight for themselves.

And what about the Budapest Memorandum? It will not amount to much if the West continues to act the paper tiger. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry's threats to place sanctions on Russia and his upcoming visit to Kiev cannot be a replacement for real action on Washington's behalf. The blow to Ukraine's sovereignty is a blow to the value of an American signature.

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