Putin is playing solo

With lightning quickness, Moscow led the crisis in Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin wanted an escalation and exploited all the means at his disposal: Russia's Black Sea Fleet is stationed in Sevastopol Harbor; a pro-Russian local populace; Ukraine's complete economic dependence on Russian gas; and the West's ongoing weakness in the face of recent global crises. No less important is the overt weakness, bordering on indifference, exhibited by the American administration. It is not surprising that the Russian president is playing all alone on the Ukrainian court. Spasiba (thank you), Obama.

The Russian parliament on Saturday gave Putin the green light to use military force in Crimea. This was the needle. Putin's spokesman made it clear later on that only the president would decide how to proceed, and that he has not decided yet. This was the gauze. In this crisis, Russia is the pyromaniac and the fire department.

Where is Washington? Where is Brussels? Even the United Nations has again managed to embarrass itself when its special envoy to Crimea decided to forgo the privilege, explaining that "visiting Crimea today is just not possible." The U.N. is more or less admitting that despite international law and the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances (the 1994 treaty obligating the sides to "respect Ukrainian independence and sovereignty within its existing borders"), Crimea is effectively already in Russia's hands.

The Ukrainian script is almost entirely identical to the Russian-Georgian war in the summer of 2008, when the Russians countered efforts by the government in Tbilisi to take control of South Ossetia. And yet the West was still taken off guard and NATO doesn't even have a contingency plan prepared to deal with a hostile Russian takeover in Ukraine.

Putin is behaving like a thief in broad daylight, thumbing his nose at the world. Citizens of western Ukraine see him as a criminal perhaps, but their brethren in the east see him as a hero defending motherland, recreating the Russian empire and even bringing Crimea back into the fold. Putin, the restoration man.

Putin is not afraid of activating his army, seizing airports, deploying the specialized Berkut riot police that sniped protesters in Kiev and which, according to reports, fought for the Russians, and even allowed ousted President Viktor Yanukovych to hold a press conference in Moscow on Friday. Indeed, so much confidence in one president.

Paris, Berlin, Warsaw and London are worried. Washington is issuing warnings, but Putin alone is the one dictating the pace. Simultaneously, the Russians are also applying psychological pressure on Ukrainians with the Russian gas giant, Gazprom, threatening to cancel the discount on its gas prices if Ukraine doesn't settle its $1.55 billion debt, knowing full well that Ukraine's coffers are empty.

The crisis in Ukraine today offers us a glimpse of the new world order compared to the old one, and how the forces are aligning: Putin is maintaining media silence but is applying pressure; and Obama is talking -- without influencing the situation. Ukraine, Iran and Syria, all the same.

The Russian president, aside from one statement issued by the Kremlin, is keeping silent. This silence, meanwhile, is being heard loud and clear by the rest of the world. Putin has several options. He can of course use military force and do in Ukraine what he himself is preventing from happening in Syria. He can also play for time and wait for the Crimean referendum on March 30, where a favorable majority is all but assured to Russia; or he can wait for the new government to be elected in Ukraine, which will, barring anything surprising, be dependent on Russian aid.

The EU, which was very happy to see the revolution in Independence Square, does not have the ability to grant the $35 billion in aid required by Ukraine (the Greek bailout package almost bankrupted the EU), while aid from the International Monetary Fund will require Ukraine to implement structural changes.

Much has been said about Putin in this story, but Obama, too, if he would only want to, could announce an aid package for Ukraine. He can, of course, move pieces such as the 6th Fleet toward the Black Sea or even the eastern Mediterranean. He can threaten to impose sanctions against Russia -- but in the meantime what we are hearing mostly involves boycotting the G-8 Summit in Sochi in three months. Perhaps Obama will eventually decide to do something, but for now Putin is singing us a solo tune in Russian while U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry hopes to calm tensions by pointing out that we are still not watching "Rocky IV."

Who would have believed that Obama's weakness could arouse memories of Sarah Palin (remember her-) from the abyss, of all people. This is the same Palin who could see the Russians from her window in Alaska, and who warned as early as 2008 that if Obama were elected, Putin would invade Ukraine. How swell for the Americans that they will always have us, Israel, to put pressure on.

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