In a late-night meeting held inside the Defense Ministry Saturday, the Forum of Eight ministers were asked to choose among several courses of action in response to the fatal rocket barrage fired at Beersheba several hours earlier. These ranged from tough-but-symbolic measures to extremely harsh ones, with the latter meant to convey to the other side that it has crossed the line, even if that means an escalation in the violence. Up until that point, ministers thought the crisis could be "contained" and wrapped up within a few hours. During the discussion, however, and in a series of assessments that preceded it, that thinking was reversed. The bloodshed in the Negev's capital (as well as reports that Hamas took part in the attack) has made it clear that some elements in Gaza are trying to change the rules of the game, a game that had previously ensured relative quiet in the country's south. From Israel's perspective, this fact necessitates harsher action against Hamas, Gaza's ruling force. Until Saturday night, the brunt of Israel's wrath was felt by the Popular Resistance Committees, which carried out the attacks near Eilat, as well as by Islamic Jihad, who assisted them. From now on the intention is to make it clear to the bosses of the Gaza Strip that they will pay a price for continued fire. As long as the fire intensifies, the price will rise commensurately. Such a policy will present Hamas with a dilemma. Hamas' supreme interest is to protect its "project," or "fortress" - the Sunni state it has set up in Gaza. It is unlikely it would risk this achievement over a few dead "committee" members, potentially provoking Israel into a ground operation meant to topple its regime. As in the past, Hamas can be expected to back down the minute it perceives that Israel is about to go crazy. This is exactly the message that Israel needs to send Hamas, immediately. It will help Hamas climb down from the tree it is stuck in, and Israel has no interest in a massive escalation right now. An escalation is a bad idea while relations with Egypt are so delicate (Only with great effort did our defense establishment secure an agreement with Egypt for a joint investigation into the Eilat attack, which killed several Egyptian police, as well as prevent Egypt from recalling its ambassador to Tel Aviv). In addition, Israel lacks international legitimacy. This is also the position presented to the political echelon by the heads of the defense establishment, led by the chief of staff, Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz, and chief of the Israel Security Agency (Shin Bet), Yoram Cohen, for whom the current episode is the first real challenge of his tenure. As far as they are concerned, Gaza should be hit with a club, while at the same time conveying Israel's willingness to reestablish the status quo ante -- namely, that they don't shoot. And if they do, we respond immediately. Over the next 24 hours it will become clear if such a course is possible, or if the south of the country is headed toward a harsh and uncontrollable escalation. The writer is Channel One's military affairs commentator.
