Our basic instinct tells us that whoever leaked the fact that talks are currently being held to free abducted soldier Gilad Shalit meant to thwart them. In this case, publicity invites pressure and intrigue, and stifles the possibility of flexibility in the talks. Now every group with an interest in the case knows it has to take action the lobby to free Shalit and those who oppose his release on one hand, and the families of Palestinian prisoners who would be included in such a deal on the other. Taking a deeper look at the leak though, one may come to the conclusion that it was pre-meditated. But by whom? A good question, left unanswered for now. Perhaps each of the three groups involved in the talks to free Shalit in Cairo has a good reason to leak the fact that such talks are taking place. Hamas, which is not keen on making the talks known in Gaza, is watching as all the glory goes to its bitter rival, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, who is trying to gain support for his bid for Palestinian statehood in the U.N. General Assembly. In Gaza, some people are worried that the bid for statehood in September may threaten their private plans for a state ruled by the Muslim Brotherhood. Hamas is afraid to confront Abbas head on, though. So what can it do? It can try to steal the show. Israel is also caught in a trap. Its commitment to Shalit is clear. But the price it will have to pay for Shalit will be high, and may even end up leading to bloodshed. In any case, inaction is not an option, and the government wants to show the public that it is taking action in this highly emotional case. (There will always be someone who claims that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will try to divert attention from the social protests by striking a deal with Hamas for Shalit's release.) Egypt, the third party involved in the talks to free Shalit, wants to show the world that it is still a regional power, even after the overthrow of former President Hosni Mubarak. Its success in bringing Israel and Hamas to the same table for talks, and its current operations in the Sinai Peninsula to rout Al-Qaeda terrorists and hostile Bedouins, and protect the pipeline that delivers natural gas to both Israel and Jordan, are designed to prove to the world that Egypt still runs the show in the region. Will all this lead to an agreement concerning Shalit? It's doubtful. The gap between the sides is large. Hamas is not yet ready for significant compromises, and it is questionable whether Israel is willing to strengthen Hamas before September [by painting Hamas as the hero of the Palestinian prisoners]. And Egypt, for all its good intentions, has more to worry about than an abducted Israeli soldier. Despite the negative aspect, the leak has an upside as well: Israel and Hamas are now talking to each other. After a long period of silence, any contact between them is positive. While it's possible that Israel's envoy to the talks, David Meidan, will return to Jerusalem once again without any positive results, after five years and two months of stagnation, the mere fact that the Jerusalem-Cairo-Gaza track is open once again brings the light at the end of the tunnel into sharper focus, with Gilad Shalit waiting for us there.
