Nasrallah humiliated

There is good reason for Lebanon to be tense. The International Court of Justice in the Hague has issued letters of indictment for four senior Hezbollah officials for the murder of former Sunni Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. This court operates under the patronage of the United Nations, so it enjoys the credit. Saad Hariri, the murdered prime minister’s son and prime minister himself until half a year ago, celebrates this victory with renewed determination to continue chasing after responsible parties.

Lebanon, however, is not a normal country. Shiite Hezbollah, who rules together with their political allies, will not hold back in response to these indictments. Nasrallah can break the rules of the game if he wants to. Even from his bunker in Beirut, escalation was, and remains, a legitimate option in the land of the cedars.

The indictments against Hezbollah leaders embarrass Nasrallah. How much energy did he invest, together with his Iranian patrons, to present Hezbollah as a patriotic Lebanese organization, building respect and pride among the Lebanese people and worrying about the welfare of the poor. Suddenly, the world is presenting Hezbollah as the terrorist organization responsible for the assassination of a Lebanese prime minister, widely considered a patriot no less than Nasrallah himself.

In August 2010, Hezbollah leaders blamed Israel for Hariri’s murder. No one actually believed them. Many ensuing efforts were made to dissuade Hariri’s son’s government from cooperating with the International Court. At the outset of 2011, these efforts hit their zenith when Hariri visited the White House Oval Office as Lebanese prime minister and left as former prime minister. Nasrallah and his patrons in Damascus and Tehran gleefully basked in their glory. They had embarrassed not only Hariri, but also President Obama.

It is no wonder that Hariri has expressed his personal satisfaction over these indictments. He has been waiting for this not only since the beginning of this year, but also since December 13, 2005, when he requested that the UN establish a special court to investigate his father’s murder.

Lebanon is tense, justifiably, because these indictments hint that Lebanon is again entering a period of uncertainty. The Sunni Prime Minister Najib Mikati has promised to honor the will of the international community (“Lebanon’s obligation”), but the composition of his government and Hezbollah’s veto power thwart his good intentions. Lebanon was divided before Hariri’s murder and is again divided after; but, today there are differences. Assad Jr., who also likely had a hand in the murder, is president of Syria just for the moment and Nasrallah is hiding away in a bunker.

Hariri can smile and so can Lebanon, even if it is always a tense smile.

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