He's played his last hand

The Syrian people waited with baited breath for President Bashar Assad's speech on Monday. Great expectations, however, breed great disappointment. In a long, tedious and at times somewhat bizarre speech, their president told them that Syria had fallen victim to an imperialist plot, perpetrated by Israel and the U.S.

In his speech, Assad again promised the same reforms that he promised the Syrian people when he came to power back in 2000. To the protesters, who have paid a heavy price, including more than 1,000 lives, the speech was mainly “too little, too late.” It contained nothing new, aside from one clear message: that which was will continue to be, and the regime is determined to fight the protesters to the bitter end.

The speech proved once again that Assad is not part of the solution to this crisis, he is the problem -- he and the regime that he heads. The reaction of the Syrian people was not long in coming. Instead of waiting for next Friday to roll around, protesters were in the streets by the time the speech was over. It is unlikely that anything in Assad's speech will curtail the demonstrations, which will in all likelihood continue at full strength over the coming weeks.

His speech proved that Assad is apparently not reading the map and does not completely understand the essence of the challenge to his rule. He has already used the few cards that he had, and now his back is up against the wall and his hand is played. That said, Syria's struggle is still far from over. The movement against the regime is gaining strength and the momentum is with the demonstrators, but Syria has yet to reach its tipping point. The demonstrations are still limited to the country's periphery, while the big cities remain calm, with their inhabitants watching from the sidelines, and the army and government are still trapped behind Assad and his regime.

The next few weeks will reveal if the initial signs of deterioration among the ranks of the army and government, as well as the sporadic protests in Aleppo and Damascus, are the first buds that herald the arrival of the spring, the point of no return in the development of the protest movement in Syria, or if the regime will manage to overcome them all and continue fighting against its opposition with all its might. What is clear is that Assad does not intend to give up in the battle over Syria, which is also the fight of his life, and that this battle could be a long and bloody one.

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