Same truth, different speaker

In December, U.S. President Barack Obama put the odds of reaching a nuclear deal with Iran at 50 percent, despite the euphoria around the world and within his administration after the interim deal was sealed in Geneva.

In Vienna on Tuesday, negotiations between Iran and the superpowers resumed, and this time the talks are focusing on a final status agreement. The 50% Obama gave in December is high in comparison with the 0% chance of success given by his former adviser on weapons of mass destruction and Iran's nuclear arsenal, Gary Samore, who has also participated in the negotiations. While officials in Jerusalem have already said it, they have been treated like a bunch of naysayers. Perhaps today people will understand why Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, back in September, refused to fall for Iranian President Hassan Rouhani's charming smiles at the U.N. General Assembly.

Samore's interview with Bloomberg merely proves that the world understands perfectly what Iran wants (a bomb), but, just like Iran, the world (including the Obama administration) also wants to buy time. Samore calls this a "classic truce." The idea is not to solve the problem, rather postpone it until a later date. Iran and the superpowers pushed the "pause" button together. This suits the West and is excellent for the Iranians.

At this rate, the Iranians are liable to reap such fruits as exploring other avenues of cooperation with the Americans, improving their country's economy and continuing to extract themselves from international isolation, all while not dismantling one single centrifuge.

Samore's comments on Tuesday did not teach us anything new here in Israel, but the fact that he is saying it certainly makes it important and extremely troubling. The problem is that Samore, today, no longer works at the White House. He is now at Harvard.

It is precisely for this reason that on the eve of negotiations, Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, can continue taking verbal jabs at the West by saying, "They will lead nowhere regardless," and why Ali Larijani, the head of Iran's parliament, can tell the superpowers not to make any more demands and to refrain from seeking supervision over the country's ballistic missile program.

After Obama's and Samore's assessments, it is interesting that officials in London have yet to wager on the chances for a successful final status deal with the Iranians. It is possible that, in light of events, they would actually prefer betting on the date of Iran's first nuclear test.

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