Turkey's Prime Minister can laugh all the way to the voting booth on Sunday: Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has served in his post since 2003, is headed to the polls not only as a stable leader in his country, but as the leader of a regional power that dictates the agenda in the Middle East. Erdogan is correctly surveying the landscape in Syria. He is allowing Syrian refugees to cross the border, is winning public opinion around the world, and specifically in the Arab world, and is abandoning his friend Bashar Assad, leaving him only with his Iranian friend. He has even found the time to propose a way out for Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi - and we haven't even mentioned the flotilla. History has taught us that Arab leaders cannot, to say the least, depend on one another. The same goes for the Muslim world. Until only recently, Erdogan described Assad as a "brother" and asked him to implement reforms while urging the international community to give Assad time to organize his domestic affairs for the sake of regional stability. Yet the minute Erdogan sensed the spirit of revolt from Damascus gaining strength, he didn't hesitate to change his policy: Over one weekend he abandoned his Syrian friend and switched camps to side with the people. As the leader of a regional power, he cannot remain aloof. Erdogan is taking advantage of the fact that the Arab world is a leaderless orphan, and is attacking the barbaric nature of Assad's forces and allowing refugees to cross the borer into Turkey. By doing so, he's not just bringing about Assad's isolation, but also positioning himself as a potential leader of the Arab street, despite the fact that he's a Turk. It comes as no surprise that demonstrators in Jisr al-Shoughor carried posters of Erdogan on Saturday, just as Gazans did around the time of the flotilla incident last year. Erdogan's democracy, which is extremely limited as far as he is concerned, is turning into a model for the Arab world. However, there is also a gamble in Erdogan's policy. It is wise to remember that between 1984 and 1999, great tension existed between Damascus and Ankara, stemming from Syrian support for the Kurdish underground group, the PKK. This nearly led to a war between the two countries, but fearing armed conflict, Syria ultimately chose to arrest Kurdish leaders in its territory. Since then, ties between the two warmed, and the allies forged close economic and military bonds. On May 31, Erdogan allowed the Syrian opposition to meet in Anatolia. Assad responded immediately by allowing Turkish Kurds to meet in Syria. Moreover, the government in Damascus is now threatening to release PKK leaders jailed in Syria. If there is one thing Ankara is afraid of, it's that action among Kurds in Syria will have ripple effects among the Kurds in Turkey. Erdogan chose to take the gamble - and it's a safer one than betting on Assad.
