Syrian President Bashar Assad is winning his war of survival, largely due to help from Hezbollah. Five thousand elite guerillas from the Shiite terrorist organization have trained Assad's army in urban warfare (in which they have gained years of experience) and have also joined in the fighting, at the cost of 400 killed and at least 1,000 wounded. The jihadist Sunni fighters -- who have been unable to topple the Alawite regime in Syria -- have converted their frustrations in Damascus into a series of lethal bombings against Hezbollah in the Dahiyeh neighborhood, the group's stronghold in south Beirut. The spillover from Syria into Lebanon, with participation of combatants from Jordan and Iraq, is ongoing. None of this contributes to the stability in our region. Lebanon, because of Hezbollah, is also involved and is therefore paying a steep price. Hezbollah fighters entered Syria toward the end of 2012, and Assad's fate was supposed to be the same as Tunisia's Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali, Egypt's Hosni Mubarak, Libya's Moammar Ghadhafi and Yemen's Ali Abdullah Saleh. Assad, however, realized that the Syrian conflict included too many players with opposing interests. Assad, unlike the other aforementioned leaders, has also been able to rely on a loyal military force: the elite Republican Guard and Hezbollah. These forces have fought together in harsh battles from Aleppo in the north to Homs. Together they recaptured the town of al-Qusayr, located near Homs. Together they continue waging the brutal campaign in the suburbs of Damascus, primarily in Ghouta -- an area of strategic importance to the regime where Assad massacred hundreds in a chemical weapons attack in August last year. Hezbollah's problem is that there is no consensus in Lebanon about its continued participation in the Syrian war. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has said that the fighting in Syria is a "war of existence" for the Shiites in Lebanon, but in actuality his organization has been hit hard and the residents of south Beirut no longer feel a sense of security. Moreover, the organization has taken a hit to its image in the Arab world. It has suddenly gone from being perceived as a liberation movement (in Lebanon) to an occupation force (in Syria). In the meantime, the Geneva 2 conference is underway in Switzerland under the auspices of the Americans and Russians. On paper, the summit is supposed to try to forge a peace deal. The chances are slim. Even though the regime and opposition are sitting together for the first time, both have conflicting interests. Iran, ultimately, is not taking part, and this is perhaps the most positive aspect of the talks, because there are already enough obstacles without the need to add the Alawite regime's benefactor to the mix. Iran's spirit, however, is still present in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and even in Switzerland, because in actuality, everything we are witnessing today is merely the continuation of the age-old violent struggle between Sunnis and Shiites. And we are stuck in the middle, even if this renewed war has nothing to do with us.
