Israel mulled over a dilemma on Thursday which has become part of an almost daily routine, but yesterday reared its head from the direction of Lebanon: How should it deal with the current situation without leading it to an unwanted and dangerous escalation-
It seems that the obvious answer, which has risen out of the high-level diplomatic-security discussions and appraisals of the situation that took place yesterday, is to refrain, at least for now, from responding too forcefully. There are a variety of reasons for this: the fact that no casualties and no damage to property resulted from Thursday's rocket attack on northern Israel; the lack of a clear enemy or target; the desire to keep the north calm at the beginning of the school year and High Holy Day period; and above all else the concern that an Israeli response will deflect the world's attention from the atrocities the Syrian regime is committing in the civil war there.
Accounting for these factors, there were those in Israel on Thursday who suspected that the Katyusha rocket attack toward Nahariya was actually a Hezbollah-Syria scheme. Strengthening this belief is the argument that nothing can happen in southern Lebanon without Hezbollah's involvement or, at the very least, without its knowledge.
The frustratingly simple answer, apparently, is that global jihadi elements, fighting against Assad in Syria, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Israel (from Sinai and Lebanon), are responsible for the rocket attack. Just as Hezbollah was unaware of the car bombs that these same elements detonated in the heart of their Beirut stronghold, it is possible that it did not know about the rockets launched yesterday.
These terrorists, working in conjunction and guided by al-Qaida leader Ayman al-Zawahiri, do not require justification to kill their enemies -- Alawis, Shiites, Jews, or Egyptian policemen in Sinai. From their perspective, all are heretics deserving of death.
They conduct themselves in an organized fashion, and their "bigger" plan is to first topple Assad, damage Hezbollah, and then turn their weapons toward us, the Jews. Just as they are doing in Egypt, where they are currently investing the bulk of their energies fighting government forces and trying to bring down the regime, they are also doing in the north -- first they want to take Damascus, then Jerusalem.
Behind Thursday's plot twist and the decision to attack Israel now could be a local initiative or an order from the top, intended to drag Israel into the Syrian-Lebanese cauldron, but with different motivations from those of Hezbollah and Assad: They hope that Israel's involvement will weaken Assad and expedite his downfall. Precisely for this reason, as mentioned, Israel is refraining from a forceful response. Indeed, there is finally a spark of hope for Western intervention following the Syrian army's massive use of chemical weapons, and an Israeli response could squander the opportunity and allow Assad yet another escape hatch.
However, alongside Israel's policy of restraint, based on sound logic, there are still a few unavoidable and disconcerting questions: On the tactical level, why was there no prior intelligence of the rocket attack, and was Iron Dome's interception rate (one out of three) successful? On an operative level, what answers will Israel be able to provide if armed groups renew rocket attacks at a quicker pace than once every few years? And what kind of deterrence can Israel create to fend off extremist terrorist groups beyond the laconic statement that the Lebanese government is responsible for what happens in its territory, which is empty on a practical level anyway? Even more problematic, on a strategic level, amid the increasingly complex realities in Egypt, Syria and now Lebanon, how can Israel remain out of the picture in the future and avoid becoming a player in wars unrelated to the Jewish state-
As of now, it appears Thursday's events in the north are behind us, but the same dilemmas are sure to reappear swiftly, in the north and south. Judging by the intensity and frenetic nature of events in our region, Israel will require a very steady hand, a clear head and not a small amount of luck so we can continue watching from the safety of our tree-house, even as the surrounding jungle threatens to drag us in.
טעינו? נתקן! אם מצאתם טעות בכתבה, נשמח שתשתפו אותנו