Egypt's civil war is already here

During the Mubarak era, as demonstrations became violent, the army left the police with the very dubious "pleasure" of shooting protesters. At that time two direct consequences stemmed from the killing of civilians: Under pressure at home and from the United States, Mubarak was forced to step down within a matter of days. The Egyptian police, meanwhile, lost its legitimacy to act. Egyptian policemen, since then, have gone underground.

This time, during the violent demonstrations against the ousted Mohammed Morsi, the military took it upon itself to shoot protesters. The results this time around are different: The Egyptian street is not demanding (yet) that Col. Gen. Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi leave his post as defense minister and leader of the country's armed forces, and in response to the killing, the administration in Washington has merely suspended the delivery of four F-16 fighter jets to Egypt.

The army, for now, still enjoys a tailwind, which allows it -- following its military coup (for Washington's attention) -- to continue operating against the Muslim Brotherhood, which was deposed of the power it won democratically.

Since his ouster on July 3, Morsi has not been seen. Various reports claim he was transferred to Tura Prison, where Mubarak is also being held. Morsi is detained under suspicion of conspiring with Hamas and for involvement in the killing of soldiers during his escape from prison in 2011. Hamas is now a leprous movement in Cairo. Suddenly, even Hamas Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh misses Mubarak.

The ongoing events in Cairo, particularly in the Nasr City district and parts of Sinai, are nothing less than civil war. The army is shooting Brotherhood supporters, who comprise a large portion of the population. Similar to the Mubarak era, the army is once again cracking down on the Brotherhood, but this time it is doing so much more violently – and in the name of democracy.

Sissi has assumed responsibility for a sensitive mission, and therefore needed to enlist the support of the street last Friday to "grant the army the mandate to put an end to violence and terrorism." Even if fewer protesters came out compared to June 30, the Egyptian military is still capable of rallying tens of thousands of civilians. It's just that Morsi's supporters are also capable of issuing emergency rallying orders.

The army is showing no signs that it intends to leave the stage, not in the streets and not politically. Rather, it is choosing to harden its tone. After the Republican Guard killed 50 Islamists on July 8 and shut down Brotherhood broadcast stations, the army is threatening another large wave of arrests against Brotherhood members and supporters. As of Saturday, the army has already killed at least 60 of them.

The Egyptian military presented the Muslim Brotherhood with an ultimatum, obligating the movement to support the transfer of political power post-Morsi. It would be naïve to expect the Brotherhood, after it has just tasted power, to return quietly to the mosques. The violence is not expected to dissipate anytime soon.

Let us assume that the army will decide to use force to clear Nasr City, where Morsi supporters have been camped in the streets for nearly a month, or will also opt for a large operation in Sinai against the Bedouin uprising there, or will take harsher steps against the Muslim Brotherhood. All of these come with a price. The army also has the authority to return Egypt to a state of national emergency, which is a provision of the new temporary constitution on condition that it is limited to three months. To lengthen this time period a national referendum is required, even in Egypt.

Cracks in the post-Morsi coalition are already becoming evident. The liberal April 6 youth movement and the Salafists have not answered the army's call to take to the streets in protest of the Brotherhood, claiming that the army's actions run counter to the democratic nature of what they were promised during this current transition period. The European Union and the U.S. are also beginning to feel pangs of discomfort due to the images emanating daily from Egypt.

The country that deposed Mubarak never hoped to see the day it would have to choose between the army and the Muslim Brotherhood. And while the third option, that of a democratic state of and for the people is still far away, the people have no choice but to hope they don't pay too heavy a cost in blood during this difficult struggle between the only two forces in Egypt with actual power.

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