In the Middle East, "extremists tend to go all the way and moderates tend to just go away," Thomas Friedman wrote in The New York Times on Sunday. That moderates have disappeared is clearly illustrated by the images coming in from Cairo. Egypt has gone from protests in Tahrir Square to apparent civil war.
When it decided to oust Mohammed Morsi, the Egyptian military looked to Turkey with apprehension. The army leadership watched Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan undermine the special status that Turkey's first president, Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, gave the Turkish military in the country's constitution. Egyptian military leader Col. Gen. Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi did not want that story repeated in the land of the Nile. However, Sissi didn't take into account that half of the Egyptian populace that backed the Muslim Brotherhood in last year's presidential elections. Despite widespread anti-Morsi protests in Egypt, they hadn't suddenly disappeared. These people still backed Morsi, even if some had begun showing signs of disappointment. On television on Monday, it appeared civil war was underway in Egypt.
Over the past year, Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood were not wise enough to show flexibility. All the power they obtained in office did not sate them. They seized all the desirable posts and deepened corruption in Egypt. Most of all, they failed to solve the economic problems facing Egypt's population of over 80 million.
It is possible that the military was unaware of the need for dialogue with the ousted regime, of the fact that private talks between both sides might have calmed the storm. But it is clear that no real bridge existed between the sides and that both lost self-control. Now the military holds the reins of power, but it is in a very tough spot. It is responsible for the current situation in Egypt and it has to answer to international demands. Ultimately, the military is a weakly unified coalition that lacks the determination and self-control that Egypt needs at the moment.
Will the military stick to its guns even if its Islamist partners abandon the revolution? Can the military trust its units that have been infiltrated by Muslim Brotherhood members in the past year? It's too early to tell. Predictions are useless. Western intelligence has failed to read the situation in Egypt thus far leaving no reason to trust intelligence assessments on Egypt.
Those who want to win in Egypt will be forced to close their ears, ignore the shouts and go all the way. The faint of heart will be left by the side of the road.
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