Iran's ballistic missile program lagging behind US estimates

New study by non-partisan Congressional Research Service casts doubt on Iran's ability to test-fly intercontinental ballistic missiles by 2015 • Report says Iran apparently not receiving as much help as would likely be necessary, notably from China or Russia, to reach that goal.

צילום: Reuters // A deactivated Soviet-era SS-4 medium range nuclear capable ballistic missile displayed at the La Cabana fortress in Havana in November 26, 2009. [Archive]

Iran is apparently no longer on its way to acquiring intercontinental ballistic missiles by 2015, according to an internal U.S. report recently submitted to Congress.

The report casts doubt on a view long held by U.S. intelligence agencies that Iran could be able to test-fly an intercontinental ballistic missile, or ICBM, by 2015 if it receives "sufficient foreign assistance."

"It is increasingly uncertain whether Iran will be able to achieve an ICBM capability by 2015," said the report compiled by the non-partisan Congressional Research Service, which works exclusively for lawmakers.

Iran does not appear to be receiving as much foreign financial assistance, notably from China or Russia, as would likely be necessary to reach that goal, according to the 66-page report dated Thursday.

It is also increasingly tough for Tehran to obtain certain critical components and materials because of international sanctions related to its disputed nuclear program.

In addition, Iran has not demonstrated the kind of flight test program generally deemed necessary to produce an ICBM, report compiler Steven Hildreth, a specialist in missile defense who consulted seven external expert reviewers, wrote.

The study appears to be the most detailed unclassified look yet at Iran's controversial ballistic missile and space programs. It does not address Tehran's nuclear program, which has prompted international fears that it could lead to atomic weapons.

An effective nuclear-weapons capability requires three things to work together – enough fissile material, a reliable weapons device and an effective delivery system, such as a ballistic missile that can grow out of a space launch program.

Iran's efforts to develop, test and field ballistic missiles and build a space launch capability have helped drive billions of dollars of U.S. ballistic missile defense spending, further destabilized the Middle East and contributed to Israel's push for pre-emptive action.

Iranian missile threats have also prompted a U.S. drive for an increasingly capable shield for Europe, largely built by contractors such as Lockheed Martin Corp, Boeing Co, Raytheon Co and Northrop Grumman Corp.

Meanwhile, two Iranian warships docked in Sudan over the weekend, marking the second visit of its kind in the last two months. The visit risks widening divisions inside Sudan's government and upsetting its Gulf Arab donors.

A few weeks ago, the Sudanese government accused Israel of bombing a military weapons factory near the capital Khartoum. Israel declined to comment on the alleged attack but has accused Sudan of smuggling weapons to the Gaza Strip, which is ruled by the Iranian-allied Palestinian movement Hamas.

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