Western intelligence is in the dark about North Korea

Outside the utopian borders of North Korea, governments have been busy trying to predict how the new leader will govern. Mostly they are wondering how the death of Kim Jong Il eluded them, until it was announced on state-run television in North Korea.

צילום: AP // Dear leader, dearly departed? The body of Kim Jong Il lies in state in Pyonyang, North Korea.

As masses of mourners, including the new leader of North Korea Kim Jong Un, continued to file past the open casket of the late Kim Jong Il to pay their last respects on Tuesday, Western intelligence agencies were wondering why it took 48 hours for them to obtain information about the demise of the "Dear Leader."

Kim Jong Il's casket was placed in a glass vitrine in the Kumusan Memorial Palace in Pyongyang. His body has been covered with a red blanket as his head rests on a white pillow. Those who came to bid farewell could also glimpse the late leader's awards and medals. And in the meantime, cult of personality has already formed around his successor, Kim Jong Un, whom North Korean media has already called a "child of Eden."

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Outside the utopian borders of North Korea, governments were busy trying to predict how the new leader intends to govern. Mostly they were wondering how the death of the former leader eluded them, until it was announced on state-run television in North Korea. The New York Times reported that for 48 hours South Korea had no idea the North's leader had died, while Washington also heard from news reports. This is not the first time, however, that U.S. and Asian intelligence agencies failed to uncover information about the reclusive state. In 1994, the West was unaware of the death of Kim Il Sung until after it was announced by the North Korean media. It also had no knowledge of the first nuclear reactor for uranium enrichment constructed in Pyongyang or of North Korea's involvement in the construction of a nuclear reactor in Syria.

Perhaps the West is breathing a sigh of relief because of China's influence on Pyongyang. China is the only country expected to send a delegation to the Dear Leader's funeral next week, and the only country that can get Pyongyang on the phone at any time.

In the meantime, a struggle is expected between the military, the communist party and parliament in North Korea. Kim Jong Un is expected to take the reins of the party his father had controlled. The parliament is currently headed by Kim Yong Nam, an unimposing figure who poses no real threat. The military, however, does have the power to reject Kim Jong Un's leadership. It is no wonder that before his death Kim Jong Il instructed his daughter and her pragmatic husband to stand by the young leader's side.

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