FBI probe raises new questions about Clinton's credibility

ANALYSIS: The FBI's decision to review the email scandal dogging Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton saw Republican rival Donald Trump and his supporters rush to call for her head on a platter. Does the Clinton campaign have any ace left up its sleeve-

צילום: AP // Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton

The letter from FBI Director James Comey indicating that new suspicious emails had been discovered involving Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton has shaken up the already stormy presidential race. The big question, of course, is how this latest revelation will affect the balance of power between the former secretary of state and her Republican opponent Donald Trump, and whether it will turn the final week of the election into a referendum about Clinton's trustworthiness and conduct.

We know this is an earthquake, but not how strong it is on the electoral Richter scale or whether the tremors will be felt in the homes of undecided voters or of those who intended not to vote for either candidate. It may very well be that next week we'll find that at least one person has been hurt.

We can assume that the mid-week polls will help us understand the severity of the event. One thing is certain: The negative coverage has moved from Trump to Clinton in excellent timing for Trump, who has had a particularly bad month. Now the focus is on her. Even if the information the FBI has found does not relate to her directly, the discovery once again reminds voters of the points Clinton is doing her best to obfuscate: lack of trustworthiness, exploitation of power, contempt for the rules.

If Trump manages this week to keep the public focused solely on Clinton's trustworthiness and the scandals involving her and her husband, he may make a comeback. We've already seen that this election is fickle, and the dynamic can change overnight. Even before the announcement about the new emails, the candidates were statistically even in a Washington Post/ABC poll.

This weekend, Trump took advantage of the new-old scandal to reiterate that Clinton's alleged actions are no less serious that those of then-President Richard Nixon in the 1970s. As far as Trump is concerned, Clinton has long since ceased to be a candidate, unless she's a candidate for trial.

But even after this weekend's new scandal, we have to note that Clinton has a built-in advantage both in terms of her organization and the 19 million voters who have already cast their ballots, and according to most breakdowns, she holds a big lead among those early voters.

This latest scandal may be the "October surprise" that everyone has been talking about. But we can assume that November will bring its own surprises, both from WikiLeaks and the Clinton camp, which we can assume has ammunition against Trump. We've already said this race is not over until it's over.

We can assume that the Clinton camp has collected material from Trump's stormy past. It may very well be that the best way for them to sweep the email scandal off the top of the agenda is to leak a new scandal about Trump. Should we prepare ourselves for another 20-year-old story?

If anyone has any doubt about the potential damage the new scandal could cause to Clinton's campaign, they're welcome to look at the Democratic candidate's quick response. At the first rally after the report, she did not address the scandal directly, but later held a press conference -- and she prefers to stay underground -- at which she stressed that all the information should be presented to the American people for the sake of transparency.

Clinton, of course, has a serious problem with trustworthiness, and she knows that the decision by the FBI head will only bring in more voices who will nod in agreement with the cries at Trump's latest rally to "lock her up." What is of greater concern to Clinton is the effect this will have on the undecided voters, who could give Trump another chance.

The undecided, and the voters who loathe both candidates, historically tend to go with the side that represents change and hope. It's no wonder that at his rally in Colorado on Saturday, Trump spoke about public corruption being a deep, serious threat to the country.

Sick of the Clinton brand

Trump knows that in the 2016 election there are plenty of Americans who are sick of the establishment, of yesterday's people, and of the Clinton brand, as well. The renewed investigation against Clinton suddenly bolsters the WikiLeaks revelations, which thus far have been downplayed in the media.

Clinton wants it to be over. According to various analyses from this past week, her lead is so big that there is nothing left to do but declare her the next president.

But these assessments were based on historical models. This election, with its upsets and reverses, would seem to require its own special models.

After initially ignoring Comey's letter, the Clinton camp realized it was not a comic interlude, and they are furious. Campaign chairman John Podesta responded by saying that the FBI director's letter to the heads of various committees on Capitol Hill contained more rumors and hints than "meat."

That may or may not be true. The matter demands investigation, and Comey promised absolute transparency in the investigation.

What is certain is that this scandal involves the woman closest to Clinton, Huma Abedin, and her husband, former Congressman Anthony Weiner, the subject of a separate investigation into a sex scandal that led to the discovery of tens of thousands of new emails on Clinton's server that need to be looked into.

Incidentally, Abedin recently announced her plans to divorce Weiner because of the scandal. Yesterday, possibly for the first time since the campaign kicked off, Huma Abedin was not with Clinton on her plane.

The American media reported that Attorney General Loretta Lynch tried to block Comey's letter, arguing that it would affect the election. It isn't hard to guess whom Lynch supports. Comey, for his part, believes that American citizens should be part of the picture.

In July, Comey was the target of heavy fire from the Republicans when he decided not to recommend that Clinton be indicted, even though, as he admitted, she had acted with "gross negligence." In October, he suddenly became the darling of the red camp.

About the question of whether Comey has a political interest in sending his letter just as the election is drawing to a close, we can suppose that Comey is acting mainly in his own interest, and of course for the sake of the American people. Considering that, it's hard to say that the FBI director's actions are unreasonable.

This story broke just as Donald Trump is inching up in the polls. Before the announcement about the new emails, the Washington Post/ABC poll reported that the gap between the two candidates had shrunk to just 2 percent in Clinton's favor nationwide. With a 3 percent margin of error, this in effect means they're even.

Clinton is hoping to bring an end to the story and return to the White House, this time as president. But the surprises are plentiful in this crazy election, and everything could still turn around.

טעינו? נתקן! אם מצאתם טעות בכתבה, נשמח שתשתפו אותנו

כדאי להכיר