'Public apathy could bring Left to power'

Likud MK Tzipi Hotovely warns of nightmare scenario, says "national camp is fighting for its life" • Labor members are unable to feign enthusiasm about the deal with Hatnuah • Parties shopping around for political stars.

צילום: Gideon Markowicz // Labor leader Isaac Herzog. Who has the energy for a revolution?

Labor leader Isaac Herzog stood before his party caucus on Sunday and vowed that "94 days from now we'll bring about a [political] revolution." Addressing the crowd, he reiterated the word "revolution" several times -- as instructed by his advisers -- but to his dismay, the thousands of Labor party members present at the convention did not echo him with enthusiastic roars. "Say 'Revolution!'" he beseeched them, but only silence answered. No one had the energy for revolution, they just wanted to vote on Labor's unity deal with Hatnuah party and go home.

The party caucus, which numbers thousands of members nationwide, is the driving force behind any party during election time. When a party leader or one of its MKs wants to stage a high-profile visit somewhere, or bring attention to an issue, they are the ones who assist him. Caucus members, for their part, crave rubbing elbows with MKs, as it is the ultimate expression of the influence they wield: MKs and ministers grace their family functions with their presence, and knowing a minister is very helpful in business, and in general.

Following the deal with Hatnuah, Labor caucus members should have been able to smell revolution in the air. Given the amount of time the party has been withering away on the benches of the opposition, removed from all bases of power, they should have been racing to take the elections by storm, especially since the media has been lauding the newfound hope the union represents. But Labor's convention this week was devoid of any fanfare or excitement, and rife with sober exchanges and gloomy expressions. Herzog's fervid speech did little to help, and neither did the endorsement of his predecessor, MK Shelly Yachimovich. The media's overwhelming support was also futile against the overall sense of pessimism.

The reason is simple: The numbers are very clear, and even if Herzog and Hatnuah Chairwoman Tzipi Livni were to win the election, she has yet to bring one mandate to the Left, and therefore Herzog would be unable to form a government. If anything, Labor members were concerned by a potential backlash -- that the joint ticket would drive voters away to other leftist parties, or to the centrist parties, like Yesh Atid and Kulanu.

Many in the convention criticized Herzog's negotiating skills, and the fact that he gave Livni the proverbial keys to the kingdom with no apparent justification. Livni's party, they said, is projected to fall short of passing the election threshold, so why would Labor's chairman facilitate a situation in which his party would share the premiership with a political hitchhiker?

Herzog may have enjoyed the praise lavished on him by Yachimovich, who not so long ago was his bitter rival, but this alliance is likely to be short-lived, as Yachimovich may already be planning a post-election ambush for Herzog.

Labor's own viewpoint of the events is different. Herzog's associates said the party plans to promote its social agenda during the elections, as those are the issues the public cares about; adding that given the work Labor MKs had done during the 19th Knesset's term, the party has plenty to offer. Labor's own surveys project considerable growth among its voter base, and Herzog's associates rejected the results of media polls, which indicate the party was treading water. The right campaign, the insisted, would facilitate Labor's growth.

Labor can take solace in the fact that everyone is in the same political boat. The public did not want early elections, and parties across the political spectrum have been made to take notice. Labor is not the only party to falter since elections were set for March 2015 -- the same goes for the Likud, Yesh Atid, Yisrael Beytenu, Habayit Hayehudi, Shas, and even Kulanu.

'The public is apathetic'

Last week was a good week for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu: The Likud caucus voted in favor of his motions on the party's primaries, and former minister Gideon Sa'ar -- the product of Netanyahu's rivals within the party -- announced that he would not vie for the Likud's chairmanship.

This week proved more complex: The Likud's internal court overturned the vote, only to ratify it later on; the National Insurance Institute's 2013 Poverty Report was released, and its somber findings were immediately attributed to the prime minister's policies; and a decision by the General Court of the European Union to remove Hamas from its list of terrorist organization was presented as his personal failure. The backward logic of it all, however, is that the constant attacks on Netanyahu in the Israeli and international media could end up working in his favor.

Over the past few weeks, Netanyahu has included Interior Minister Gilad Erdan and Transportation Minister Yisrael Katz in many of his political deliberations, and has praised them both, publicly and often. Another MK to be included in the consultations on the Likud's election campaign is Tzipi Hotovely, despite the ideological differences between her and Netanyahu, which have sometimes caused tensions between them.

Hotovely is one of the youngest MKs to serve in parliament, and if there is one thing the Likud is missing, it is some young, energetic spirit. The party's image, it seems, has aged by several decades over the past few years.

"I've recently learned something that surprised me: The Likud turned out to be the biggest party among the double-envelope ballots, which were mostly soldiers' votes [in the 2013 elections]. Yesh Atid came in second by a substantial margin, and third, by a small margin, was Habayit Hayehudi. It surprised me because the Likud's reputation is of an old, gray party, and young voters are believed to be looking for excitement and [political] stars. But I was wrong," Hotovely said.

"The problem is that the public is apathetic. This election campaign, with its splits and unions, looks like an episode of 'Polishuk' [a political comedy depicting the chronicles of an inept politician] and the public is not motivated to vote, and the truth is that this time, the national camp is fighting for its life."

In the past, she said, "The Right was removed from power because the public was divided over the peace process, but very few people believe in it anymore, except for a few delusional individuals in the Left. For the first time in history, the Left could come to power in stark contrast to public sentiment about the peace process."

Hotovely's criticism was leveled at Yisrael Beytenu leader Avigdor Lieberman and Kulanu Chairman Moshe Kahlon, who insist on remaining ambiguous on who they plan to endorse as prime minister following the elections. Both the Likud and Habayit Hayehudi have marked Yisrael Beytenu and Kulanu as potential partners in Herzog and Livni's coalition, making them an inextricable part of the Left.

"If you don't want to wake up the day after the elections to the nightmare scenario in which Herzog and Livni are in power -- because you wanted to vote for a social party, or worse, because you stayed home -- you have to vote," she said.

Battle of the ego

The split that rattled Shas this week sparked unprecedented animosity between party activists, which gave way to actual violence during the press conference where former party leader Eli Yishai officially announced that he was forming a new party.

The rivalry between Yishai and Shas Chairman Aryeh Deri spelled a split foretold. Rather than recognizing the personal qualities that garnered Yishai massive support within the party, Deri pushed him into a corner, fighting and humiliating him and his associates every step of the way. Rather than understanding the sensitivities the party was experiencing following the death of its spiritual leader, Rabbi Ovadia Yosef, and pursuing unifying measures, Deri chose to oust Yishai from the party so he could be the sole captain of a sinking ship.

The attempt to label Yishai's move as one tainted by hubris and personal interests is unlikely to succeed. During his long political career, Yishai has always come across an unusually humble and honest, and the attempts by Deri's associates to decry Yishai's alleged self-serving agenda lack credibility. If anything, ego and credibility issues are rife within Deri's camp.

Bennett's true interests

The video posted by Habayit Hayehudi Chairman Naftali Bennett on his Facebook page this week -- a spoof showing him disguised as a hipster who goes about his day in Tel Aviv while constantly apologizing for everything that happens around him, regardless of whether or not it is his fault -- may have sought to encourage voters to register with the party, but it inadvertently alluded as to what he does and does not care about.

Bennett was chosen to head Habayit Hayehudi -- the new and improved national religious party -- but he could not care less about religious issues. He is after the nonreligious Tel Aviv-based voters. Forget the rabbis, issues of religion and state, and the ways of the old party. Bennett cannot relate to them. He never could.

This is one of the reasons members of the Tkuma party, which merged with the National Religious party to form Habayit Hayehudi, said this week that despite the efforts to prevent Tkuma leader Construction Minister Uri Ariel from dissolving the partnership, the overall feeling was that Bennett has had enough of them and their rabbis and was showing them the way out.

Only two MKs demonstrated integrity this week: Tkuma MK Rabbi Eli Ben-Dahan, who left the faction and said he would vie for a slot on Habayit Hayehudi's Knesset list in the party's upcoming primaries; and MK Yoni Chetboun, who chose to leave the party after having realized that Bennett's disregard of the rabbis and other national religious issues meant the party could no longer be his home.

Lapid in Kahlon's crosshairs

Signs of distress were evident for the first time in Kahlon's campaign headquarters this week. It appears things are not going as smoothly as he had expected, but every new party experiences growing pains and it is perfectly normal for things not to follow even the best laid plans, so Kahlon can remain optimistic. Kulanu is a fad party, and the campaign's current situation does not necessarily indicate what will become of it, or how it may perform in the elections.

Kahlon, however, is troubled. The modus operandi he has chosen for the new party is unique and comprises circles. Each circle includes associates and advisers, and the circles are completely compartmentalized for each other. Some of his associates, who believe they are his closest confidants, are oblivious to the parallel universe where Kahlon has led other advisers to believe the same.

One of Kahlon's closest advisers is his brother, Deputy Jerusalem Mayor Kobi Kahlon. Kulanu's leader has surrounded himself with a long list of prominent figures, including former Likud members and political activists, and while it is unclear whether it is intentional or not -- there are no women involved in his campaign. All of its members are men.

Naturally, Kahlon aspires to change that when the time comes to form the party's Knesset list. He would like to see women comprise at least half of it, but this too has proven more difficult than first anticipated. Many prominent public figures have been mentioned as potential party members. Kahlon had approached some of them and was turned down, while others, who approached him, were refused. The fading momentum has prompted Kahlon to step things up with aim of presenting Kulanu's Knesset list within the next few days -- much sooner than he had planned.

The past few days have seen the Kahlon campaign face off against Yesh Atid, the previous election's fad party, which Kulanu seeks to replace. Two years in politics were apparently not enough for Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid to learn the rules of the game. He was under the impression that all he had to do was present Kahlon with polls suggesting a joint ticket would win a considerable number of mandates, to facilitate an alliance between their parties. He never expected Kahlon to refuse as adamantly as he did -- as adamantly as Lapid refused to partner with any other party ahead of the 2013 elections.

That is how fad parties work -- everything has to be shiny and new, otherwise the magic is gone. To make matters worse for Lapid, he was once again portrayed as someone desperately trying to find a way to be re-elected, by pursuing odd partnerships in hopes of saving himself from the inevitable end.

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