Among the young, secular and politically moderate Tel Aviv crowd (of which I consider myself a part), Yair Lapids new Yesh Atid party was an extremely popular choice in last Januarys Knesset election. Using hope and change rhetoric similar to that of Barack Obama's during the 2008 U.S presidential election campaign, Lapid, a former Channel 2 TV news anchor, grabbed the hearts of Israels moderate silent majority and became the surprise of election night, with Yesh Atid winning 19 seats, making it the second-largest party in the Knesset.
But Lapid hasnt had an easy go of things since the election. As trendy as it was to vote for Lapid in January, its now even trendier to be disappointed in him.
According to a recent Knesset Channel poll, 78% of Israelis disapprove of Lapids performance as finance minister. Furthermore, 82% of Israelis think Lapid isnt fit to become prime minister. The same poll found that, if elections were held today, Yesh Atid would fall to 13 seats, behind Likud-Beytenu, Labor and Habayit Hayehudi. So it looks like the Center-Left will have to find a new knight (or knightess) in shining armor.
Lapid isn't giving up without a fight, however. Over the weekend, he lashed out defensively, comparing disillusioned Yesh Atid voters to "nervous schnauzers left out in the rain."
Lapid was a victim of his own electoral success. He would have been perfectly suited for a second-tier portfolio (i.e. education or interior), but he was too green for any of the top three portfolios (defense, finance and foreign affairs). However, with 19 seats, Lapid had to demand one of those three. He certainly didnt have the credentials to ask for the defense portfolio (Lapid served in a non-combat role as a journalist in the Israel Defense Forces and avoided emphasizing security issues during the election campaign) and the foreign affairs portfolio was unavailable (Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is holding it in reserve for Yisrael Beytenu leader Avigdor Lieberman, pending the verdict in Liebermans corruption trial). Lapid was therefore left with no choice but to enter the political minefield that is otherwise known as the Finance Ministry, unless he did the mature thing and offer that portfolio to a more qualified individual on his party list.
Lapid was put in a no-win situation. When he entered politics, Lapid promised to be the voice of Israels overburdened middle class. Yet since he became finance minister, economic reality has forced Lapid to oversee the implementation of an austerity budget that includes tax hikes and spending cuts which have alienated him from his base.
This may have been Netanyahus intention all along. Immediately after the election, Lapid appeared as if he would be the most viable challenger to Netanyahu for prime minister the next time around. He even said as much.
But that seems fanciful now, given the plunge in public support for Lapid. By handing the finance portfolio to Lapid, Netanyahu may have negated the greatest threat he faced to a potential fourth term in office.
The budget hasn't been the only thorn in Lapid's side. The bumbled effort to find a suitable replacement for Stanley Fischer as Bank of Israel governor hasn't been a testament to Lapid's personnel management skills (although Netanyahu also deserves blame for the fiasco). And while the main issue Lapid ran on was eliminating the injustice of haredi draft evasion, haredi enlistment won't be mandatory until 2020 under the bill Yesh Atid is pushing through the Knesset. That's an eternity in Israeli politics. By then, the haredi parties could easily be back in the government and able to thwart the law's implementation while Lapid sits in a television studio, again delivering us the news on Friday evenings.
The jury is still out, however, on whether Lapid will have more staying power in Israeli politics than his late father Tommy Lapid did (under Lapid the elder, the Shinui party won 6 seats in 1999 and 15 seats in 2003, before completely disappearing in 2006). But if I had to bet, Id put my money on Lapid never climbing higher than he is now. Lapid has failed the test of translating rhetoric into reality and lost the faith of voters who had such great hopes for him.
The election in January showed that Israels electorate is split relatively evenly. But there is a leadership vacuum in the Center-Left. Not many take Labor leader Shelly Yachimovich seriously as candidate for prime minister and too many people are still bitter about Hatnuah leader Tzipi Livnis past political failures for her to have a realistic shot at the premiership. Meretz, under Zehava Gal-On, is gaining popularity but itll always be a niche party. The picture could change before the next election (which, if the current coalition holds, will take place in 2017), but as things stand now, it doesnt appear that Netanyahu has much to worry about from his left flank, and Lapid in particular.
Lapid had the chance to become the flag bearer of the Center-Left, but he's stumbled badly so far. Lapid says he's seeking to do what's right, not what's popular, and that he'll end up proving his doubters wrong. Until then, however, we're all just schnauzers in the rain.
The writer is an Israel Hayom English Edition editor.
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