Wave of terrorism far from over
It doesn't take an Israeli genius to know "the writing was on the wall." To some extent, Belgian authorities knew Tuesday's attack was only a matter of time, as evident by the hundreds of raids and arrest carried out since the deadly Nov. 13 Paris attacks. These operations resulted in the arrests of dozens of terrorists, and they prevented numerous terrorist attacks.
Unlike what some Israeli pundits say, the European frame of mind has changed since November. This shift has been slow and somewhat cumbersome, but it is happening nonetheless.
Israel, a small country surrounded by enemies and fences and a world leader in the war on terror, may find it hard to understand, but coordinating dozens of nations and hundreds of police and intelligence bodies is a complex matter, which requires legislation, regulation, and overcoming cultural differences and communication difficulties.
Tuesday's terrorist attacks in Brussels will surely speed up these processes, whose success requires the professional adaptation and collaboration of a myriad of elements, so to create what Israel calls "the prevention chain": Intelligence gathering and surveillance of potential targets; the systematic apprehension of suspects and their interrogations, at times using unusual means; and real-time operations meant to neutralize "ticking time bombs" -- terrorists en route to their targets.
This chain is far more complex to see through in Europe than it is in Israel, and not only because we are far more experienced in these matters.
There are many aspects that must be observed: The need to gather real-time intelligence on the ground across the Middle East and Europe; surveilling thousands of individuals moving across vast areas; numerous "blind spots," especially in Turkey, which continues to be the weak link in the West's war on Islamic State; the hundreds of thousands of refugees, who pose a challenge to gathering credible information; the legislative limitations within the European Union regarding intelligence gathering in communities that are hotbeds for Islamic State recruitment efforts; and the attempt not to disturb normal life, commerce, and tourism across Europe, all make stopping the wave of terrorism in its tracks very difficult.
While Islamic State claimed responsibilities for the attacks on the Zaventem Airport and the Maelbeek Metro station in Brussels, the timing of the strike remains unclear, and all that is known at this time is that it was part of the onslaught unleashed in recent weeks on various locations in the Middle East, Africa and now -- Europe.
Some experts said the rampage is a power play by the jihadi group, meant to compensate for its fraying control over the "caliphate" formed between Iraq and Syria, others say it was a demonstration of local operational potential that has fully matures, and others still link Tuesday's attacks to last week's arrest of Islamic State operative Salah Abdeslam, the Belgian-born French national who had been on the run since the Paris attacks.
In the absence of solid information on how Islamic State relays orders to its operatives, the West will continue to wonder in the dark as it investigates these attacks and strives to prevent future ones.
Israel can make a considerable contribution to these prevention efforts, as it is a major intelligence axis in the Middle East, but the far-reaching punditry by some Israeli experts, suggesting Israel is out of Islamic State's reach, was exaggerated. It is true that in its immediate friction points with Israel -- the Golan Heights and Sinai -- Islamic State is busy fighting other wars, but this group has declared itself to be a sworn enemy of Israel, so we must assume that Israel, as well as Europe, is in its crosshairs.
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