Elections will not deter Israel

It is possible that the elections have created growing, perhaps exaggerated, interest in a single rocket that exploded on Friday in an open area in the Negev and by all indications does not appear to have been fired by Hamas.

But during such a sensitive time, any straying from the agreement reached at the end of Operation Protective Edge -- as it is perceived by Israel -- causes a nervous buzz in the local media and in Gaza, as if both sides are on the brink of another military conflict.

The problem is that Hamas does not properly understand Israel (though most experts claim that Israel does not properly read the Palestinians' intentions. Actually, both of these theories could be true).

The Palestinians see Israel as another rotten Western democracy -- through the lens of a dictatorial regime. Therefore, the assumption is that Israel is more vulnerable during elections season than it is during the rest of the year. And in order to maintain the facade of relative calm that soothes its citizens and voters, it will react extra cautiously and show restraint in response to provocations from Gaza -- which is not only disappointed by the outcome of this summer's campaign, but also by the ongoing foot-dragging in repairing the damage left behind.

For proof, they point to how long it took Israel to launch Operation Protective Edge, and from that they conclude that if Israel was so hesitant during the lazy days of summer, it will try to hold fire all together during the months leading up to the elections. Indeed, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Moshe Ya'alon did everything they could to prevent a war despite the murder of the three teenage boys in Halhul, and that was a wise policy, though it was misinterpreted by Hamas and led to a 50-day campaign that damaged Gaza like never before.

Now is a good time to deliver a message to Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh and his friends, telling them that elections will not deter Israel or make it respond differently than at any other time of the year. A government that is forced to shoot does not necessarily lose public support. The opposite may in fact be true -- the public may unite to support it.

Hamas would take this message coming directly from the prime minister as a threat and as propaganda. So it would be better to deliver it quietly, by way of a third party that is reasonably trusted by both sides. Israel doesn't want escalation and it is simply not worth it for Hamas.

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