The deal isn't over | היום

The deal isn't over

Aside from the importance of Nir Barkat's victory over Moshe Lion in the Jerusalem mayoral race, there was also great significance in the fact that the "civil union" between Avigdor Lieberman and Aryeh Deri was dealt a painful blow.

Until the opening of Jerusalem polling stations on Tuesday, the prevailing assumption within the Israeli political system was that, together, Lieberman and Deri were an unbeatable duo. This is probably what Lion, a cautious and deliberate individual, thought when he embarked on the adventure that Lieberman and Deri concocted for him.

Lieberman and Deri likely promised Lion support that they were not capable of garnering for him. And Lion probably also fell for the axiom, "You can't do it without them." With Lieberman and Deri at his side, Lion thought victory was inevitable. It is both good and important that this premise was shattered. The first time is never the last.

It was not only Lion who stumbled. With him were distinguished ministers Gilad Erdan, Yisrael Katz, Gideon Sa'ar and Silvan Shalom, as well as deputy ministers Zeev Elkin and Ofir Akunis. To whom could they show their faces on Wednesday? They certainly realized that five of their esteemed friends in Jerusalem -- Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, along with Benny Begin, Tzipi Hotovely, Dan Meridor and Reuven Rivlin -- did not lift even a finger in support of the candidate whom both Lieberman and Deri, as well as numerous local political operatives, described as the Likud party's official candidate in the Jerusalem mayoral race.

I wrote before that it would have been wise for Netanyahu to support Barkat openly. But his silence also carried great weight, and he may have gained strength from the Jerusalem mayoral election. Netanyahu has no reason to fear Deri's stated goal of dismantling the government with the help of Lieberman. That option vanished before the ballots had even finished being counted.

This does not mean that the Lieberman-Deri deal will fade away. Lieberman will likely exert tighter control over Yisrael Beytenu, and if he emerges from his trial (the verdict will be issued on Nov. 6 in Jerusalem) without a moral turpitude designation, he probably will return to the political arena reinvigorated.

But Deri's position is not as stable as in the past. Deri's Shas party failed in the city of Elad. While Shas did win in Beit Shemesh, this was only due to the mistake of Habayit Hayehudi leader Naftali Bennett, who withdrew from his pledge of support for a female candidate and backed someone else. Women in Beit Shemesh were angry at Bennett, and it's possible that their votes (even if unintentionally) gave Deri his only victory on Tuesday.

Everything now depends on Eli Yishai. If he dares to, he could successfully challenge Deri for leadership of Shas. Rabbi Ovadia Yosef is no longer alive, meaning that Yishai has the freedom to mount such a challenge. Both Shas and Yisrael Beytenu are in need of a shake-up more than any other party. Likud ministers have also been given the chance to break free from the grasp of Lieberman and Deri and remember what Rabbi Nachman of Breslov said: "The main thing is not to fear at all."

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