צילום: IDF Spokesperson's Unit // An IDF Homefront Command search and rescue team in action [Illustrative]

Major earthquake in Israel could kill 3,000, officials warn

Security forces, emergency services and municipalities gear up for 4-day annual disaster readiness drill • Experts say that as well as killing thousands, large tremor could displace 80,000 people, damage over 30,000 buildings • Police: A complex scenario.

Israel's security forces and emergency services are scheduled to launch "Turning Point 17," the annual disaster relief drill, next week. The four-day exercise is scheduled to run between Sunday and Wednesday.

The National Emergency Administration, IDF Homefront Command, Israel Police, Magen David Adom emergency services, Israel Fire and Rescue Services and a host of municipalities are slated to participate in the exercise, which will review Israel's disaster readiness in case of a major earthquake, focusing on the cooperation between the various agencies during a national disaster.

The extreme-case scenario for the drill, based on several expert opinions, predicts that a massive earthquake may kill as many as 3,000 Israelis and injure 3,800, while 4,200 may be trapped under collapsed buildings, and 80,000 may be displaced.

It also projects that 7,300 buildings will sustain massive damage and 27,000 will be moderately damaged.

At least two massive earthquakes have occurred along the Dead Sea Rift fault system: the 1837 Galilee earthquake, which experts believe measured 6.5 on the Richter scale or higher, and which wreaked havoc on the northern city of Safed and the surrounding area, killing thousands of people; and the 1927 Jericho earthquake, believed to have been a magnitude-6.2 tremor, which inflicted massive damage on the Jerusalem and Jericho areas and killed 287 people.

Experts believe Israel could once again experience a massive quake along the rift, and that emergency readiness could save countless lives and significantly reduce damage to infrastructure.

Beyond tending to casualties and rescue efforts to save those trapped under the rubble, dealing with the aftermath of an earthquake would entail dealing with damage to critical infrastructure, the release of dangerous materials, and an overall unclear picture as to how best to manage the crisis.

Command and control of national disaster situations falls to the Israel Police, who mobilize all other emergency services.

Police Commissioner Roni Alsheikh held a special meeting Monday at which he and Police Operations Directorate Commander Brig. Gen. Alon Levavi briefed officials ahead of the drill.

"This is a complex and sensitive scenario meant to drill our operational readiness. This is a huge responsibility," a police official said.

One of the things the exercise will review is the effectiveness of police public diplomacy. It is believed that a major earthquake would significantly cripple Israel's communications infrastructure, making it difficult for authorities to relay vital information to the public.

Possible solutions that are under review include using police helicopters to broadcast messages, and using the police Motorcycle Unit to relay messages on the ground.

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