The heated debate concerning a possible military strike by Israel on Iran heightens the perception that the window of opportunity for a military option is gradually closing. Both those who support such a strike and those who oppose it seem to understand that any decision on the matter taken before next summer will be irreversible. The debate, whether it is conducted in Israel, the Arab countries, or the West, is punctuated by apparently indisputable reports that Iran is entering the final stage of uranium enrichment. Iran's ability to produce even a single nuclear warhead translates to an immediate strike on Israel as the Shiite Islamic Republic operates according to a different logic than countries who subscribe to the Judeo-Christian ethic. Shia Islam glorifies violence, and its supporters number between 10 and 12 percent of the world's Muslim population. On some religious occasions, Shiite Muslims inflict harm on themselves in a show of sympathy with one of their religious leaders who was murdered, together with his followers, in the 7th century, by their Sunni Muslim brothers. Jews and Christians are viewed as enemies of Islam by all Muslim factions, and are considered people who are not worthy of sovereignty. This is why Iran generously helps terrorist organizations fighting Israel and the West any way it can, no matter if they are Shiite or Sunni. As long as Iran does not have nuclear weapons, we must act according to the Jewish traditional precept of "He who rises to kill you, kill him first." A preemptive strike today will be less fatal for Iranian citizens, since a strike on active nuclear facilities will cause much more damage. There is no doubt that Israel's aim is to destroy Iran's nuclear weapons capability, and not to harm its innocent citizens. In addition, waiting for confirmation on Iran's possession of weapons of mass destruction, may cause even the aim of a preemptive strike to fail, due to Iran executing a second-strike capability, after Israel's initial attack. Any strike by Israel, during any stage of Iran's nuclear development, will inevitably open up fronts with Hezbollah and Hamas, who will launch massive rocket attacks on Israel from Lebanon and Gaza. Under existing circumstances, it is uncertain whether Syria would join the war. Syria's armed forces are embroiled in a bloody civil war, and its president may opt to stay out of the fray and use his troops instead to preserve his regime. If Israel postpones taking action against Iran, in the meantime, Syria may acquire a new, more hostile regime, that will try to demonstrate its commitment to the anti-Israel front, and join the war against us. Moreover, upcoming presidential elections in the U.S. are preventing any confrontation with Israel. Until November 2012, Israel can be sure of U.S. sympathy. Even if Israel creates irreversible facts on the ground, such as a fatal strike on Iran's nuclear program, and even if it operates against the will of the U.S., the U.S. will suffice with only the most symbolic of sanctions against Israel. The writer is a lecturer at the Department of Israel and Middle East Studies at Ariel University and director of the university's Middle East Research Center.
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