Egypt is not alone in trying to come to grips with the dramatic events of the last few days. The West and the Arab World are also struggling to understand the double precedent that was set in Cairo on Wednesday: for the first time since the Arab Spring began sweeping through the region, an Arab nation has experienced a double coup and for the first time ever, a Muslim Brotherhood regime has been toppled.
The events of the past week have left both the intelligence community and experts in Middle Eastern affairs flabbergasted. While everyone could clearly point to the fact that Mohammed Morsi's presidency was rattled by the growing public rage against him, and some said it was likely that the "bus driver" (a phrase coined by Director of Military Intelligence Maj. Gen. Aviv Kochavi) would be replaced at some point, no one expected it to happen here, now and with such force.
It is unlikely that anyone would be willing to hedge a bet on the true outcome of the second Tahrir revolution.
Just like the riots that erupted in Turkey in June, the events in Egypt proved that the intelligence community is having trouble accurately assessing societal undercurrents.
Despite these objective difficulties, several key issues riddle the drama in Egypt, namely the economy, Gaza Strip, the United States, the Arab world and Israel.
Morsi left the Egyptian economy in much worse shape than when he took office. Tourism revenues have plummeted, foreign investments have sharply decreased and foreign currency reserves are at a disconcerting low, which will make it difficult for the new government to improve the hungry masses' situation.
Without introducing extensive reforms, any regime will struggle to survive and Egypt may be heading for years of political instability.
The removal of the Muslim Brotherhood from the seat of power in Egypt does not bode well for Hamas, which has already lost the support of Iran and Hezbollah over its decision to back the Sunni rebels fighting Syrian President Bashar Assad.
Hamas' main concern now is that Israel will use the regional turmoil to mount a military campaign in the Gaza Strip, which is why it has deployed hundreds of operatives on the ground to make sure none of the other terror groups in Gaza launch an independent attack, giving Israel an excuse to strike.
The confused messages from Washington this week further eroded the already-questionable standing the Obama administration has in the region. Still, the U.S. will play a crucial role -- politically, militarily and mostly financially -- in the military leadership's ability to stop Egypt from completely crumbling.
The secular Egyptian youth who brought about the second Tahrir revolution after coming to the conclusion that the Muslim Brotherhood usurped the first one, have counterparts in Libya, Yemen and Tunisia, and the coming weeks will indicate whether those countries will see a second uprising as well.
Other Arab countries are also following the events in Egypt closely -- and anxiously -- as well: Jordan and Syria have obvious reasons to be concerned and so does Turkey, where the protesters who were eventually defeated by the government might take to the streets again.
As for Israel, government and defense establishment officials on all levels were instructed to remain mum on Egypt, as they should be. The events in Cairo are an internal Egyptian affair that for the moment at least, does not concern Israel.
The relationship with the Egyptian military and Israel's defense establishment is good. Consecutive coordination meetings were held even this week, at the height of the protests. As long as that collaboration is unaffected and things remain quiet in Sinai and the Gaza Strip, Israel should watch the events unfold quietly, from the sidelines.
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