Even Assad knows the end is near

“Damascus is entirely under the control of the Syrian military, and rumors of fighting on the streets of the Syrian capital are complete lies,” the semi-official Iranian news agency Fars, which is intent on providing a revisionist account of the events unfolding in the Syrian regime’s last stronghold, reported two days ago.

In reality, the exact opposite occurred. The Syrian capital has turned into a real battlefield.

Since Sunday, gun battles have not ceased in Damascus, particularly in the southern neighborhoods. Even the Iranians, who are allied with President Bashar al-Assad, could not deny the attack that rocked the Syrian national security headquarters, the “holy of holies” of the regime. The blast killed Syrian Defense Minister Daoud Rajiha and his deputy, Assef Shawkat, who was also Assad’s ruthless brother-in-law. Even the official Syrian television station, which always makes a point of trying to put a positive spin on the events similar to Iranian state media, could not ignore the attack.

Even after such a dramatic week in Damascus, it is impossible to know for certain when Assad will fall. But, after the crushing blow which the Syrian high command absorbed this week, it is safe to say that the hourglass is running empty.

Assad is on the way out, and he is already beginning to lose his inner circle.

Since the uprising began on March 15 of last year in the town of Daraa, not far from the border with Jordan, the world has wondered what will tip the balance and decide the struggle between Assad and his opponents. After the first serious wave of soldier and officer defections failed to subdue the regime, and when the horrific acts of slaughter committed by the regime against its citizens failed to trigger international intervention similar to that in Libya, we began to wonder what, if anything, could bring about the downfall of the butcher from Damascus.

This past week may have been the one that produced the turning point in this conflict, which has already claimed over 17,000 lives in vicious battles from Homs to Damascus.

The week began in gruesome fashion. Cab drivers in Damascus refused to drive passengers to the charming Al-Midan neighborhood in the south of the capital on Monday, despite the high demand from people eager to visit the local bakeries that offer some of the finest sweet honey cakes, a favorite of locals as they prepare for the Ramadan fast.

The ancient Al-Midan quarter has turned into a combat zone. The Sunni residents of the area have made common cause with the Free Syrian Army, which has been battling the regime’s regular armed forces. The opposition claimed on Wednesday that the entire neighborhood is in its hands. The Syrian regime ostensibly denied this, claiming the opposite.

We do not always receive enough information from Syria. On the other hand, we can’t complain about ever receiving too little disinformation. On the one hand, the regime enjoyed an advantage of superiority in the quantity and quality of their arms, but the opposition relied on the support from the citizens, which boosted morale even higher.

Death visits the Assad household

Al-Midan is not the only neighborhood that has turned into a war zone. The other southern neighborhoods, including Asali, Kadem, Tadamon and Hajar al-Aswad, have also become scenes of particularly bloody clashes. The Assad regime has spared no means. Earlier this week, it escalated the fighting in the Damascus suburbs.

The regime believed that this would enable it to root out the last remaining rebel nests that had taken hold and expanded in various neighborhoods around the capital. The rebels, for their part, were waiting for the right moment to launch their final push toward the presidential palace, which sits in the Dumar neighborhood. The palace is well protected by the Fourth Division, whose main mission today is to guard the life of Bashar Assad.

Wednesday was particularly dramatic. The Syrian cabinet huddled with the country’s defense chiefs in the national security headquarters in Damascus to discuss the next steps that needed to be taken in the battle against the rebels. During the meeting, the attack took place, perhaps marking the end of the Assad era.

The assassination of Rajiha, 65, who happened to be the highest-ranking Christian in the regime, is mainly symbolic, even if it does have an impact on the Christian population in the country, which comprises just 10 percent of the total population. On the other hand, the successful hit on Shawkat is highly significant. Shawkat was the most senior member of the Alawite-dominated regime. He was the brother-in-law of the president, by dint of his marriage to Bushra, Assad’s older sister.

Shawkat was considered one of the cruelest members of the regime. He had made sure to maintain the family’s hold on power after the passing of Hafez Assad in July 2000, overseeing the orderly transfer and the solidifying of Bashar Assad’s entry into the presidential palace. Shawkat was the rebels’ top target. They had attempted to assassinate him in late May. One of his bodyguards had sought to poison him, but the plan failed.

This time, the assassination was a success. For the first time since the uprising began, death has visited the Assad family household.

Life and death

In the wake of recent events, one can certainly wonder if Assad could fall quickly. Nobody can answer this question definitively. This depends on other factors, like the psychological impact of Wednesday’s attack on Syrian army morale as well as that of the Syrian leadership and the rebels. It is not inconceivable that the attack’s rousing success could set off a new wave of defections and desertions by soldiers who would either join the rebels or head en masse toward the border with Turkey. Such a development would provide even more momentum to the current dynamics.

In the 18 months since the uprising began, the Syrian regime has undergone somewhat of a facelift. Assad chose to bolster the more extremist elements within the Alawite cult that has ruled Syria since the 1970s. These people are willing to do everything and at any price to remain in power.

This is the hard core of the minority tribe which knows full well that not only is it fighting to stay in power, but it is in fact fighting for its survival. Unlike Egypt and Tunisia, nobody plans on taking prisoners in Syria. The battle between the Sunnis and the Alawites is a battle for life and death.

Perhaps this can explain the importance of the terror attack that took place two days ago. The attack hit the nucleus of the government, most importantly Shawkat. Although he carried the title of deputy defense minister, he was in truth much more influential than his nominal boss, who was named to the post in August as part of the regime’s efforts to curry favor with the Christians.

This week also marked a turning point in the opposition’s thinking. For the first time, it began to believe that it was capable of removing the regime without the assistance of the international community. The Syrian opposition had begun showing signs of despair over the conduct of the international community, which made do with condemnations after expressing shock and disgust at news of the latest massacre.

While the opposition is itself rife with division and while the Free Syrian Army is highly disorganized, it nonetheless managed to astound everyone, perhaps even itself. To carry out an attack of that nature, one needs especially high operative, organizational and intelligence capabilities.

Asylum in Moscow

Israel’s major problem is that the events taking place in Syria are not far away. The regime’s opponents have made alliances with al-Qaida elements that have crossed the border from neighboring Iraq. This concerns the West, particularly Israel. It is also important to remember that Assad has chemical weapons and long-range missiles that are liable to fall into the wrong hands.

Surprisingly, during discussions at U.N. headquarters in New York this week, Moscow expressed concern over the prospect of an extremist Islam threatening Syria. The Russians are exploiting this issue to protect their ally, Assad. Moscow has two key reasons to protect him. Firstly, Damascus is an excellent client of the Russians. In 2011, the Syrian government purchased a total of $4 billion worth of Russian arms. Secondly, Syria is the last bastion of Russian influence in the Arab world. Moscow can only dream of the days when the Soviet Union wielded greater clout in this part of the globe. It’s no secret that Vladimir Putin wishes to re-enact those chapters of history.

Washington and the Europeans sought to pass a Security Council resolution this week that would impose more severe sanctions against Damascus. On two prior occasions, Moscow and Beijing succeeded in torpedoing the initiative. This past Wednesday, U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon sought to persuade the Chinese to alter their policy on Syria. Ban’s predecessor, Kofi Annan, tried to do the same in his meetings with Russian officials in Moscow. It’s hard to say that either of them scored any significant successes.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov admitted on Wednesday that the “decisive battle” in Syria had begun, but he also added that if this was indeed a revolution, then the events were “none of the U.N.’s business.” A spokesperson for the French Embassy disagreed, saying, “Assad needs to understand that his struggle to hold onto power is useless.”

All of this leads to the key question: Who will give Assad and his family asylum?

The most logical candidate is Moscow. Russia supported Assad to the dismay of the entire world, with the exception of Iran. It has kept Assad in power for as long as it could in the face of the rebel onslaught. Assad could also find asylum in Tehran.

Nevertheless, it is still too early to pack. For the moment, Assad is having trouble coming to grips with this reality, and his immediate circle of advisers will not let him flee so quickly. Remember, in Syria this is a battle for survival. Assad will leave only after killing the maximum number of civilians.

Among the Alawites, there are those who have expressed disappointment with Assad. They wish he had remained an optometrist. They are regretful that his brother Maher, the commander of the 14th Division of the Syrian military, was not chosen to succeed his father. Nonetheless, they too expect Bashar Assad to weather the storm and maintain his place in power.

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