Livni steadily losing Kadima support after three years at the top

Less than a week after Kadima leader Tzipi Livni yielded to internal pressure and called early primaries, capping a tumultuous three-year tenure at the party's helm, she appears to have fallen out of favor with most of her fellow faction members.

Just days after MK Shai Hermesh announced that he was switching sides and backing Livni's main challenger, former Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz, Livni suffered another blow Monday when three Kadima Knesset members told her that they were also endorsing Mofaz, who narrowly lost to Livni in the 2008 leadership contest. Her support in the party will further erode when Mofaz's campaign manager, Avi Duan, is sworn in this week as a replacement for MK Eli Aflalo, a Livni ally, who is leaving the Knesset to assume a key position at the Jewish National Fund.

Livni was elected party chairwoman in 2008 when Prime Minister Ehud Olmert stepped down over corruption charges. Mofaz, who lost that race by a razor-thin margin, insists that the elections were rigged and has since become one of Livni's fiercest opponents, constantly attacking her performance and leadership style. Although Livni has largely managed to maintain her grip on the party -- in no small part because of the incumbent-friendly Kadima charter and the support of most Kadima's MKs -- she is now facing, for the first time, the prospect of losing her once-dominant position in the party.

Livni's decision to allow the primary process to go ahead came after weeks of mounting pressure on the party leader and with growing support for her would-be challengers. Although the party charter allows her virtual veto power over the primaries date, she reluctantly heeded her party's calls and last Wednesday announced that primary elections for the Kadima leadership would be held on March 27, months ahead of schedule. The latest in-fighting over the primaries intensified in recent weeks after the ruling Likud announced it would hold its own primaries in January, setting the political system abuzz about a possible march toward early general elections, perhaps as early as this year, long before the term of the current government expires in late 2013.

Adding to Livni's woes is the fact that the party has also been embroiled in a corruption scandal involving possible misuse of public funds from the party's coffers. Livni has repeatedly denied any knowledge of wrongdoing and has even filed a complaint with the police against the party's treasurer, whom she accused of embezzling from the party coffers and falsifying financial records.

MKs Doron Avital, Nino Abesadze, Dr. Rachel Adato, Ronnie Bar-On, Yoel Hasson, Orit Zuaretz, Robert Tiviaev, Shlomo (Neguse) Molla, Marina Solodkin, Gideon Ezra and Nachman Shai are all part of Livni's camp. Together with Livni, they make up 13 MKs, less than a majority of Kadima's 28-member Knesset faction.

Mofaz has appeared to have secured the support of almost all other Kadima MKs who are not in the running for the top job. Ruhama Balila Avraham, Arie Bibi, Zeev Bielski, Israel Hasson, Shai Hermesh, Yohanan Plesner (a former staunch Livni supporter), Yulia Shamalov Berkovich, Otniel Schneller, Ronit Tirosh and new member Duan, have all thrown in their lot with Mofaz. MK Yaakov Edri is expected to join them in the coming days. MKs Avi Dichter and Meir Sheetrit are mounting their own candidacies to unseat Livni, but it also seems likely, given their recent public statements, that they will back Mofaz.

MK Dalia Itzik, Kadima party faction head, is still on the fence, but even if she supports Livni's re-election efforts, this would fail to deliver the embattled leader a majority among Knesset members who, along with the registered Kadima voters, will choose the next party chairperson. Livni's supporters have been pressuring Itzik to make a decision.

Bielski's change of allegiance became the topic of the day on Monday in the Knesset hallways after he formally informed Mofaz of his support, several days after Israel Hayom reported on Mofaz's effort to woo Bielski and other undecided MKs. Bielski, who was recruited into the party by Livni, has been one of her most vocal allies over the years. "Now that three years have passed, I have come to the conclusion that Mofaz is most qualified to become Kadima's candidate for prime minister," Bielski said Monday.

Bielski told Livni about his decision in what was described as a charged and tense meeting. Reportedly shocked to hear of his decision, Livni attempted to dissuade him from jumping ship. But Bielski remained adamant and told her his decision was final.

Livni's loss of her party faction's majority has had its effects on other day-to-day party affairs. She recently agreed to Mofaz and Dichter's proposition to have the party's organizing election committee appointed through a coordinated mechanism that involves a wide spectrum of party forces. Livni has also agreed to Dichter's proposition that the new budget the party is set to approve will only be in effect for the next three months, until the party primaries are over. According to Dichter such a measure would "ensure that the party apparatus' budget is not used by one particular candidate at the expense of the other."

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